Bush upbeat for key speech

2006-01-29 14:35

Washington - For a president beset by a relentless war, political scandal and doubts about his leadership, George W Bush appears decidedly upbeat as he prepares to deliver Tuesday's State of the Union address.

His poll numbers, while low, are off their worst levels. His choice for the US Supreme Court, Samuel Alito, is likely to be confirmed by Senate, despite Democratic objections. And Republicans believe he can take an uproar over his domestic spying and turn it to his advantage by casting him as a tough fighter against terrorism.

He has shown renewed confidence, fielding questions from friendly audiences after his speeches and joking with reporters at a White House news conference Thursday. He told them he planned to campaign for Republican candidates ahead of the November congressional elections.

"As you know I like to get out and tell people what's on my mind," he said.

Domestic issues, more than international ones, will likely be on Bush's mind in Tuesday's speech, in which he is expected to discuss containing health care costs.

Bush will likely continue his defence of the domestic surveillance program, rejecting Democratic claims that it is illegal and arguing it is vital for preventing terrorist attacks.

The State of the Union is one of the biggest events on the US political calendar. It is delivered before a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives, with Cabinet members and Supreme Court justices attending. Major television networks broadcast it live.

Bush's first State of the Union in 2002 set the tone for his administration's foreign policy when he described Iraq, Iran and North Korea as an "axis of evil." The following year, the United States toppled Saddam Hussein's government in Iraq. Iran and North Korea's nuclear programs remain among the administration's top foreign policy concerns.

In 2003, Bush used his State of the Union to make the case for war against Iraq, including a claim about Iraqi efforts to obtain uranium in Africa that his administration later had to retract.

Bolstered by a clear-cut victory over John Kerry, Bush used last year's speech to tackle one of the nation's most sensitive issues: overhauling the Social Security pension system. Yet despite an aggressive nationwide campaign, his proposals failed to win much support and faded away.

That was only one of his setbacks last year. A top White House aide was charged in a criminal investigation of unauthorized leaks. Republican congressional leaders were embroiled in other scandals. Bush's response to Hurricane Katrina was widely criticized. Republicans and Democrats objected to his nomination of his attorney, Harriet Miers, to the Supreme Court and she was forced to withdraw her nomination. American casualties continued to mount in Iraq.

Bad start

This year hasn't had a great start. A new, costly prescription drug program for the elderly was expected to be political boon for Republicans, but widespread confusion about the program has made it a liability.

His push for democracy in the Middle East has backfired with the victory of Hamas - which the US considers a terrorist group - winning the Palestinian election.

Yet if Bush has a reason to be cheerful, it's his opposition.

Democrats seem unable to present a coherent, united alternative to Bush. They are divided about what to do in Iraq - withdraw now, set a timetable for withdrawing, or stay the course.

Top Democrats have accused Bush of breaking the law by allowing the National Security Agency to conduct the domestic surveillance without obtaining warrants. But Bush has been eagerly fighting back and Democrats risk appearing weak on terrorism - an issue which may have cost them the White House in 2004.

They have also appeared powerless to prevent Alito, a conservative judge, from joining the court and tipping its balance solidly to the right.

Some Democrats have called for a filibuster, a politically risky delaying technique to stop the nomination, but it is unlikely they have sufficient support even within their own party to carry it out.

When Kerry, while in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum, joined the call for a filibuster, Republicans were almost giddy in their response.

"I think even for a senator, it takes some pretty serious yodeling to call for a filibuster from a five-star ski resort in the Swiss Alps," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said.

By next year, when Bush enters the House chamber to give his State of the Union speech, Alito will likely be sitting in the audience next to his fellow justices. Kerry should be sitting there too, presumably wishing he was the one giving the speech.

That thought may be another reason for Bush to be upbeat.

- AP