'Axis of evil' haunts Bush

2006-11-08 12:36

Washington - When US President George W Bush lumped Iraq, Iran and North Korea together into an "axis of evil" nearly five years ago, it became one of the defining moments of his first term.

Now, weakened by his party's losses in Tuesday's elections, he will face mounting pressure from critics who say the three countries he targeted have instead become an "axis of failure" born of his administration's foreign policy mistakes.

With little more than two years left in office and Bush's presidential legacy on the line, the United States remains bogged down in an unpopular war in Iraq and confronted by twin nuclear challenges from Iran and North Korea.

Embattled on all fronts, Bush has dug in his heels, saying he will consider changes in tactics but not strategy in Iraq and rejecting direct talks with Tehran or Pyongyang.

But with Democrats winning control of the US house of representatives from Bush's Republican Party in midterm polls widely seen as a referendum on the war, they will now have more leverage in pushing for a shift in direction.

"Staying the course is no longer an option for Bush, not strategically, not politically," said Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.

Adding to the president's woes, America's enemies may see the election outcome as a sign of crumbling US resolve and try to capitalise.

Divisions over Iraq war

Though Bush has broad constitutional leeway in foreign affairs, Democrats will now wield more influence, largely through congressional probes and budget oversight, than they have since Bill Clinton was in office.

Their problem, however, is they have yet to agree on a single approach to Iraq.

Increased pressure for an exit strategy could also come from fractured Republican ranks. With the 2008 presidential race looming, top party contenders likely will urge Bush to heed voter backlash against rising US casualties in Iraq.

He could find a face-saving way to start extricating the United States from Iraq when a bipartisan commission co-chaired by Bush family loyalist James Baker presents recommendations.

But Bush, clinging to his with-us-or-against-us worldview and not having to worry about re-election, may hold firm, believing as he often insists that history will vindicate him.

Bob Woodward's book State of Denial quotes him as vowing to stick it out in Iraq even if his wife Laura and his dog Barney are the only supporters he has left.

Dialogue with Iran, North Korea

As the Iraq debate intensifies, calls for dialogue with Iran and North Korea also are expected to grow louder.

Analysts say Bush finds himself hamstrung by the doctrine he laid down after the September 11 attacks to isolate "rogue states". Having frozen them out, he now has little leverage.

"This president tends to be in denial about the scale of the strategic problems he faces," said Anthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Bush remains unapologetic about having taken aim at what he dubbed the "axis of evil" in his 2002 state of the union speech.

His words, criticised internationally as belligerent, underlined a US shift from the battle against al-Qaeda to a build-up for war against Saddam Hussein.

Military options against Tehran?

Since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, each problem has appeared to feed on the others. Seeing the lone superpower tied down militarily in Iraq has emboldened North Korea and Iran to press ahead with nuclear programmes in defiance of US warnings and world condemnation, analysts say.

Bush has had little choice but to play down the potential use of force against them. But efforts to forge international consensus have been hampered by lingering distrust over his decision to invade Iraq without United Nations approval.

Some analysts speculate that if Bush, struggling to stave off lame-duck status, becomes frustrated with multilateral diplomacy, he could look at military options against Tehran.

Though North Korea has gone further, conducting a nuclear test last month, the administration sees Iran as the more pressing threat to US interests, including ally Israel.

Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote that after Tuesday's elections "the preferred European scenario - Bush hobbled - is less likely than the alternative: Bush unbound".

- Reuters