Sharon gambling for high stakes

2004-05-01 10:17

Jerusalem - Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is about to make one of the biggest gambles of a career full of risk, which could cost him his job and plunge the country into a political crisis.

His Likud party votes on Sunday on his controversial plan to unilaterally "disengage" from the Palestinians, starting by withdrawing troops from the Gaza Strip and evacuating the coastal territory's 21 Jewish settlements.

By his own will, it has become a vote of confidence, though the vote is not legally required or binding and is simply a consultation with the Likud membership.

"You cannot be for me and against my plan. Whoever believes in me must vote for my plan," Sharon told Israeli radio.

However, opinion polls show the 193 000 Likud rank-and-file members are likely to reject the plan.

Would sink peace process

Defeat would not only humiliate the right-wing former general, it would also sink the peace process even deeper in the mire, since Israel's main ally the United States and the international community are looking to the plan to kickstart the process left moribund by the cycle of violence.

Four newspaper polls published on Friday predict Likud members will reject the plan by a margin of between one and seven percentage points, although they also show large numbers still undecided.

But other polls show Israelis as a whole favor the plan, which also calls for Israel to evacuate four small West Bank settlements but strengthen control over the others in the territory and continue building its internationally condemned separation barrier.

There is no doubt Sharon is playing for high stakes by asking the party which champions "Eretz Israel" - the Biblical borders of the Land of Israel, which includes both Gaza and the West Bank - to effectively renounce their guiding ideology.

Spectacular U-turn

It was nothing less than a spectacular U-turn for Sharon himself, who was known for years as the champion of the settlers living in the occupied territories.

He has justified his strategy by claiming the Palestinians refuse to restart peace negotiations and are intent on pursuing their more than three-year-old intifada, or uprising. Israel will impose a solution, Sharon argues.

The plan took people by surprise, including the Palestinians, who have not exactly embraced it.

However, Sharon most importantly has managed to convince the Middle East's major diplomatic brokers that it does not violate the internationally drafted peace plan known as the "roadmap" which lays out steps for a two-state solution to the conflict by 2005.

US President George W Bush has wholeheartedly blessed the "disengagement" plan, which in turn swayed several Likud heavyweights, notably Sharon's main rival and Likud darling, Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Still, advisors close to the prime minister are already making noises that a defeat on Sunday will not be the end of either Sharon or his grand scheme.

"One thing I can assure you: even if he loses, the prime minister is determined to go ahead with his plan," one such senior official told AFP.

That would almost certainly mean Sharon would drop his long-time allies in the nationalist right and get into bed with the left-wing Labour party - which could be one manoeuvre too many for the Likud rank-and-file to stomach.

- AFP