Howard expects victory

2004-10-03 14:19

Canberra - Prime Minister John Howard said Sunday he thinks his conservative coalition government will narrowly win a fourth term in October 9 elections on the strength of its economic record.

"I think we'll make it but it's very close," Howard told Nine Network television, noting that with the government's margin of just eight seats in the 150-member House of Representatives the race was always going to be tight.

"I have delivered and that is why in the end, I think the Australian public will put their trust in me."

The economy, national security, health and education have been the biggest battlegrounds in the nation's six-week campaign.

But the issue that has most clearly divided Howard and his rival Mark Latham of the opposition Labour Party has been Canberra's commitment to the US-led invasion of Iraq and its ongoing troop deployment in the violence-plagued nation.

Howard has pledged to keep more than 800 military personnel stationed in and around Iraq until they are no longer needed. Latham, who opposed the war from the start, says he'll bring them home by Christmas.

The election is being closely watched internationally because Howard, a staunch ally of US President George W Bush, is the first leader from the three major nations whose troops were part of the invasion to face an election. Bush follows next month and Britain's Tony Blair is expected to go to the polls in mid-2005.

If Labour wins 12 seats from the coalition in Saturday's election, it can form a majority government.

The respected Newspoll, sampling 1 600 voters last week, showed Howard's government leading Labour 51.5% to 48.5% in 12 of the incumbent's most marginal seats. But a Taverner Poll of 800 voters put Labour ahead in four of those seats.

Neither of the polls, published in Sydney's The Sunday Telegraph and The Sun-Herald newspaper respectively, gave a margin of error.

Howard, who has described the election as a referendum on who can be trusted to best manage the economy, takes credit for providing the lowest interest rates in a generation during his administration that began in 1996 and an unbroken 13-year run of growth.

The central bank has maintained the official interest rate at 5.25% since raising it by 0.25% in December last year.

Latham has declared the election a referendum on the public health system and has promised free health care for everyone over the age of 75 - a group of voters who most strongly support Howard.

- AP