Comeback for ousted Thai PM?

2006-09-21 12:36

London - Ousted Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was lying low in London on Thursday, mulling his options, including a possible comeback, after flying in for a "private" visit following the military coup in his homeland.

The billionaire politician had looked relaxed and smiling when he arrived on Wednesday in the British capital, where he has a home, but has since gone to ground amid continuing speculation about his next step.

Thaksin also has a daughter reportedly studying in London, and many analysts agree he may well stay here for some time, given that he has been threatened with arrest if he tries to return to Thailand.

"In the short term he'd be best advised to lie low for a little while," said Thai politics expert Tim Forsyth of the London School of Economics.

"But politically, I would have thought that his time has gone to be honest."

On private visit

Thaksin flew in to London on Wednesday afternoon from New York, where he had been attending the UN general assembly when military chiefs led by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin staged a bloodless coup in Bangkok.

Sonthi, who claims the support of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, has since said Thaksin was welcome back in Thailand at any time but that he could be put on trial. The general did not indicate what the charges might be.

The British government, which has a history of giving refuge to political exiles, has made it clear that the Thai premier is on a private trip. "It's not in an official capacity," said a Foreign Office spokesperson.

Foreign secretary Margaret Beckett has also refused to be drawn on what Thaksin's next step could be.

"It is not for us to say that he should be reinstalled. We have called for a return to democratic government," she said.

Comeback?

Not everyone thinks the Thai premier's political career is over - one businessmen travelling with Thaksin from New York was quoted as saying he could yet make a comeback.

"The prime minister has not given up his power," businessman Tom Kruesopon, chief executive of Boon Rawd Trading, told the Guardian daily.

One analyst agreed. "There is the intriguing possibility that he could be considering a government in exile," said Jason Abbott of London's School of Oriental and African Studies.

"He is a maverick and he may think that this is a battle he can win if he toughs it out," he told the Independent.

Unpopular

But most observers were sceptical, noting that Thaksin is unpopular in Bangkok, even if his support outside the capital is greater.

"There are lots of people in rural areas who like Thaksin but I don't think they're going to get on the streets and fight for him," said Forsyth of the LSE.

Thaksin's whereabouts remained unclear on Thursday. He had been expected to arrive at his home in a smart neighbourhood of central London, but journalists waiting there were disappointed.

The latest rumours centred on the Dorchester Hotel, often used by visiting celebrities and dignitaries, but staff there denied he had been seen.

- AFP