Russia may be expelled from G8

2008-08-14 16:17

London - The West is threatening to revoke Russia's membership in an elite Group of Eight nations club as punishment for the military incursion into the former Soviet republic of Georgia.

Three countries have already pulled out of a joint military exercise with Russian forces that began in an era of co-operation after the Cold War.

But how far will the West go, and how much do both sides stand to lose? And who is the West in the post Soviet-era?

Britain and the United States hinted on Wednesday that Russia could be expelled from the G8 club of industrialised nations and other international institutions for its actions in Georgia, subtle threats that have been backed by Latvia and Poland. But Italy, Germany and France - which holds the rotating EU presidency - have been reluctant to take sides, underscoring past divisions of the Cold War era and highlighting a deepening rift in the 27-nation European Union.

The threats have done little to fluster Russia, which continued to push through the Georgian territory of Ossetia on Wednesday despite assurances that it had halted its military operations in a ceasefire agreement. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Russia had gone too far. Britain, France and the US pulled out of a major naval exercise in the North Pacific with Russia scheduled to begin on Friday.

Expelling Russia from the G8 would have little practical effect given the G8's lack of power to enforce policies, but freezing Russia out of other international organisations such as the World Trade Organisation or blocking its membership to the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development could prove humiliating at a time when the country is trying to re-gain international stature and gain access into lucrative markets for its oil and gas reserves.

"So far we all have lost," Nobel Peace laureate and former Polish President Lech Walesa told The Associated Press.

"Russia lost because it infuriated the whole world and seems to be going back to its old methods. Europe ... has shown some hectic action and an inability to be organised, and the United States was proven helpless and inefficient."

Britain has been one of the most vocal critics of Russia's actions. Diplomatic relations between the two countries have sunk to a new low since the Cold War.

Political consequences

Tensions flared last month when Russia - along with China - vetoed proposed new sanctions on Zimbabwe at the UN Security Council - only days after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev promised Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown he would support tougher measures.

Russia is one of the council's five permanent members with veto power. The others are Britain, China, France and the United States.

The Kremlin's refusal to extradite the key suspect in the 2006 poisoning death of ex-Russian security agent Alexander Litvinenko also prompted both sides to expel diplomats and withhold diplomatic visas. Britain has also refused to hand over Russian exiles, including Boris Berezovsky - once an influential Kremlin insider who fell out with Vladimir Putin and fled to Britain in 2000 to avoid a money-laundering investigation - and Chechen opposition leader Akhmed Zakayev.

British government officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation said exclusion from international organisations could help rein in Russia. Withholding visas for government officials and their spouses had also proved effective in the past, they told AP.

Energy has been a key consideration in negotiations. Russia - which supplies the EU with roughly a third of its oil and about 40% of its natural gas from Russia - has blocked visas for senior employees of the British energy giant BP PLC. One-fifth of the world's gas reserves are in Russia and are controlled by Gazprom, the giant Russian utility that is targeting 20% of Britain's domestic gas market by 2015.

Britain's Foreign Secretary David Miliband said on Wednesday recent discussions among G8 members that excluded Russia sent a clear message.

"For seven countries to come together without an eighth country ... that has happened over the last few days," Miliband told British Broadcasting Corp radio. "I think that makes very clear to Russia that there are political consequences."

'The events in Georgia over the last five days have shocked me...'

Britain's Europe minister Jim Murphy also posted a blistering blog against Russia on Wednesday.

"The events in Georgia over the last five days have shocked me, people throughout the UK and the international community," he wrote. "Russia's use of force in a sovereign and democratic country is unacceptable and unjustifiable."

But nations have yet to test strategies for dealing with Russia in a post Cold War climate.

"I think that the Russia government is taking advantage of the fact that the US soft power is in decline and that the EU has a very elastic conception of sovereignty," said Sarah Mendelson, a senior fellow in the Russia-Eurasia Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC.

"I'm worried we might be in a rock, paper, scissors situation and that they (the Russians) are definitely on the rock side. I think they are betting that rock trumps paper."

A split among Nato allies over measures against Russia may also prove dangerous.

"The strategic assets of countries with oil are becoming more and more important," said Alexander Rahr, director of the German Council on Foreign Relations and Putin biographer.

"Now Putin wants to show the West that he also can show the West its limits."

- AP