By-election shock for Brown

2008-07-25 07:44

London - British Prime Minister Gordon Brown suffered a major blow on Friday after his ruling Labour Party lost a crucial by-election in his native Scotland.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) reversed a more than 13 000-vote majority in Glasgow East to snatch Labour's 25th-safest seat in Britain, with questions likely to be asked of Brown's future as premier.

Labour has endured two previous by-election losses in recent months and seen support plummet to record lows in the opinion polls, while Brown himself has been under pressure because of the rising cost of living, his administration's recent economic record and his own leadership style.

Overall, John Mason of the SNP garnered 11 277 votes, a 26% increase in the party's share of the vote compared to the last general election in May 2005, compared to 10 912 votes for Labour's Margaret Curran, a 19% drop.

Turnout in the by-election, sparked by the resignation of Labour's David Marshall on health grounds, was around 42%, compared to 48% in 2005.

Brown, born and raised in nearby Govan and barely a year into the job, would lose his own seat were the 22.54% swing replicated in a general election, Britain's Press Association said.

In that scenario, Labour would be left with just one lawmaker in all of Scotland, compared to 40 after the 2005 general election, according to PA calculations, with Defence Secretary Des Browne, Finance Minister Alistair Darling and International Development Secretary Douglas Alexander all losing their seats.

Mason said in his victory speech that the impact of the result would be felt as far afield as Brown's official residence in London, and declared that "Labour MPs across Scotland will be quaking in their boots".

"This SNP victory is not just a political earthquake, it is off the Richter scale," he said.

"It is an epic win, and the tremors are being felt all the way to Downing Street."

Curran, meanwhile, urged her party "to listen and ... to hear the message from the people of Glasgow East".

The SNP's margin of victory was narrow enough for Labour to request a recount, which delayed the announcement of the result by around an hour.

Brown's future as Britain's leader may now be called into question, with Glasgow East becoming Labour's third by-election defeat in recent months, one of which was a safe seat in northwest England while Labour finished an embarrassing fifth behind the far-right British National Party in the other.

The centre-left party suffered its worst local election defeat in England and Wales for 40 years in May, while a recent ICM poll in The Guardian on Tuesday put Labour 15 percentage points behind the main opposition Conservatives nationally.

Alexander acknowledged while speaking to the BBC that the defeat was "clearly disappointing" for Labour, and a "notable victory" for the SNP.

"We will, of course, reflect long and hard on the result and try to understand the message that has been sent by the voters of Glasgow East," he told the broadcaster.

- AFP