A 'nail in Georgia's coffin'

2008-08-27 11:52

Tbilisi - Russia's recognition of the Georgian rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has dashed hopes of Tbilisi regaining control over the provinces, analysts said.

It has also weakened President Mikheil Saakashvili, who had made the return of the two regions to Tbilisi's rule a priority, analysts said, but not derailed his ambitions to bring Georgia closer to the West.

"It was already 'mission impossible' before and now it will be even more difficult" for Georgia to bring the two regions back under its control, said Tornike Sharashenidze, a Tbilisi-based political analyst.

"This is the final culmination, the nail in the coffin," said Svante Cornell, the research director of the Stockholm-based Central Asia Caucasus Institute.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's decision to formally recognise the two regions as independent followed a five-day conflict this month that saw Russian military might rout the much-smaller Georgian army after it attempted to retake control of South Ossetia.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia broke away from Georgian control during wars in the early 1990s and have since had de facto independence. Moscow, which has long backed the separatists, stepped up its support earlier this year by establishing formal ties with the rebel governments.

It has handed out passports to residents and stationed troops in the two republics that border Russia in the volatile Caucasus region.

"Georgia didn't have control of these territories and now it's even more unlikely that it will ever be able to reintegrate them. If Georgia tried, it would probably escalate into military conflict again," said Nick Grono, vice president of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Analysts said that once the dust settles over the conflict, Saakashvili will face some tough questions over the handling of the crisis and his political future may well be hanging by a thread.

But regardless of Saakashvili's fate, analysts doubt Georgia will turn away from the pro-Western path he set since becoming president after the peaceful Rose Revolution in 2003.

"The western choice is an historic and natural choice of the Georgian people. Nothing can change this choice," said Giorgi Margvelashvili, a political analyst in the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs.

Cornell said it's even possible the crisis will push the West to embrace Georgia's efforts to join the Nato military alliance and forge closer ties with Europe.

"Georgia has been trying for a very long time to tell the world what has been going on. They kept saying the Russians were taking up new positions and putting new elements into play but people said they were exaggerating," Cornell said.

"Now the West can't look away anymore and Georgia's point of view is becoming difficult to ignore. It's way too early to make long-term predictions, but it could positively influence Nato and the EU towards Georgia."

- AFP