Berlusconi tipped for defeat

2006-04-09 08:06

Rome - Italians go to the polls on Sunday in a general election that could unseat Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi after five years of economic stagnation.

Opinion polls have not been published in two weeks, but the prime minister has trailed the opposition centre-left, headed by Romano Prodi, for the past two years.

Berlusconi, the US government's strongest ally in continental Europe and Italy's richest man, still hopes his promises of tax cuts will swing a surprise victory. But even he spoke of possible defeat in the final days of campaigning.

If poll forecasts are borne out, power will pass from the flamboyant Berlusconi to the mild-mannered Prodi, a former president of the European Commission who promises tax breaks for Italian companies and to withdraw troops from Iraq quickly.

Polls open at 08:00 (06:00 GMT) in the first of two days of voting that ends at 15:00 (13:00 GMT) on Monday.

The election follows the most acrimonious campaign in decades, with Berlusconi using offensive language against centre-left voters and Prodi comparing the prime minister to a drunk.

In one of his tirades against Communists, the prime minister sparked a diplomatic incident with China by telling voters that under Mao Zedong the Chinese Communists boiled babies to use as fertilizer.

Whoever wins will inherit the unenviable task of cutting the world's third-largest debt pile while trying to breath new life into a struggling economy that grew an average of 0.6% a year under Berlusconi.

Prodi, if elected, would also need to manage a disparate coalition, ranging from die-hard Communists to centrist Roman Catholics, that was united during the campaign mostly by a dislike of Berlusconi.

Among their plans is "conflict of interest" legislation that would force Berlusconi to choose between politics and his immense financial interests stretching from TV to film, books, magazines and one of Italy's top soccer teams, AC Milan.

"The outcome might very well be that together with (Berlusconi's) defeat this time we may also see his disappearance from the political scene," said political analyst Franco Pavoncello.

Voting rules

A new voting system rushed into law in December also means that whoever wins is likely to enjoy a smaller parliamentary majority than the outgoing administration, especially in the Senate, which has a key role in passing legislation.

That has raised fears of a return to "revolving-door" leadership which Berlusconi, elected in 2001, ended by becoming the head of Italy's longest serving post-war government.

There have been 60 administrations since World War Two and coalition instability often brought down governments within their first year of office.

US President George W. Bush once praised Italy's relative new stability, saying it was "easier to make common policy".

If Prodi's bloc wins the ballot, elations between Rome and Washington will likely become more complicated.

While no one expects a 180-degree shift in foreign policy under Prodi, analysts say he would reverse Berlusconi's priorities, putting Europe rather than the United States first.

Whatever the result, political analysts expect it to take at least a month before a new government can be formed.

- Reuters