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MikeHampton
 
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Crime: Our Ticking Time Bomb

10 March 2014, 15:26

This is a crime comparison between three towns on the Garden Route that lie within 100km of each other. This is to prove that Knysna, one of South Africa's most famous tourist and retirement towns, has a major crime problem that is being ignored. It's a ticking time bomb made out of unemployment and drugs. Unaddressed, it can only explode.

Knysna relies far too much on tourists so when anything negative such as crime is mentioned, citizens and politicians are likely to poo-pah it as a lie. Tradition is that Knysna Municipality and Knysna Tourism will, each season, proclaim more tourists and a successful holiday season as if it validates their existence and nothing else they do matters. Children drowning, as has happened several times recently, is damn 'awkward' but general crime is easier to ignore because the public is in denial too - what you don't admit has less power to scare you.

In 'Which Countries Murder the Most', i showed that South Africa is one of the worst and that the world average for murder is 7.6 per 100 000 people versus South Africa's 36.5 per 100 000. I proved that Knysna experiences a lot of crime for a town so small.

Not everyone is wilfully ignorant but the loudest are unfortunately the deniers who've slammed me before for being public about it - how can we sort a problem unless we admit it?

Today, as a further example, i compare crime statistics between the Garden Route municipalities of Plettenberg Bay a.k.a Bitou (pop. 49 000), Knysna (69 000) and George (194 000). Those population stats are rounded off to the nearest 1000. Although i doubt the figures (expecting them to be higher),  i'm working on the assumption that these towns will all have shared the same census problems.

Standing alone, without population adjustment, the statistics are frightening i.e. Knysna's crime exceeds that of George. But to truly compare to George, the bigger city and Eden District capital (under which the other municipalities fall), you need to, roughly, multiply Knysna's crime statistics by 3 and Plettenberg Bay's by 4 (or x2.81 and x3.96 respectively). These crime statistics then paint a far more disturbing picture.

Below, i've adjusted the average crime figures from the past 2 years to what they'd be if Knysna and Plettenberg Bay had the same population as George for 1 year:

Murder
Knysna - 59
George - 15
Plettenberg Bay - 19

Attempted Murder
Knysna - 32
George - 9
Plettenberg Bay -24

Assault With the Intent to do Grievous Bodily Harm:
Knysna - 1260
George - 203
Plettenberg Bay - 647

Common Assault
Knysna - 1345
George - 442
Plettenberg Bay - 640

Common Robbery
Knysna - 336
George - 62
Plettenberg Bay -160

Home Burglary
Knysna - 2601
George - 862
Plettenberg Bay -2083

Home Robbery
Knysna - 59
George - 20
Plettenberg Bay - 46

Robbery With Aggravated Circumstances
Knysna - 278
George - 97
Plettenberg Bay - 259

Sex Crimes
Knysna - 544
George - 120
Plettenberg Bay - 154

Child Neglect & Ill-Treatment
Knysna - 40
George - 11
Plettenberg Bay -16

Driving Under the Influence
Knysna - 1096
George - 280
Plettenberg Bay - 503

Drug Related Crime
Knysna - 2497
George - 714
Plettenberg Bay -1277

Plettenberg Bay is a far more dangerous a place to live than George. Knysna is far more dangerous than Plettenberg Bay and much worse than George. Between the three, Knysna is the King of Crime.

Let's address several, possible criticisms. When it comes to drunken driving, it could be said that Knysna's traffic cops are more efficient than George's and Plettenberg Bay's. But the same can't be said of the SAPS with regards the other crimes because several of Knysna's station commanders have come from George and Plett's current boss, Colonel Michael Nolans, has served in both Knysna and George.

That child crimes in all 3 towns are so low isn't a good sign because they would have to be the unlikely exception in the crime culture they lives in. It's far more likely that the children of the Garden Route are being failed.

Drug related crime stats are notable, directly proportional to unemployment and consequent dissatisfaction.

This is based on SAPS statistics but there isn't a single person i know who trusts them i.e. everyone believes them to be higher.

Tick, tick, tick...

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