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Piet Engelbrecht
 
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Earth warming - Another belief

21 April 2014, 20:45

A belief system is a set of mutually supportive beliefs. The beliefs of any such system can be classified as religious, philosophical, ideological, or a combination of these. Philosopher Jonathan Glover says that beliefs are always part of a belief system, and that belief systems are difficult to completely revise. (Wikipedia)

I’ve read quite a number of articles on these pages and if anything smacks of a belief the Darwinians/dawkinians/atheists/agnostics/? and others attack the authors vehemently to such an extent that I think it is necessary to address a few of their own beliefs.

This is the first article that will address some of the beliefs and their contradictions.

I find the total over-estimation of the greatness and supremacy of some humans and their especially when it comes to their criticism of belief systems like creation, Christianity, etc.  very interesting. How these people understand everything and how their logic/extrapolated scientific logic is the only logic in the universe and how stupid the rest is for not thinking their way.

If we consider our position in the universe and specifically that our star (sun and its planets) is but one of +/-200 billion in the milky way and there are an estimated more than a billion of such galaxies (of which our milky way is but a middle weight) in the known universe then for me it translates to more stars than we humans have brain cells.

Now this human that can only use 30% of its brain capacity for a maximum of 60 years can work out how all of this was created and then specifically the interactions that produced this universe is mind boggling. Even better - this was created out of nothing (the Big bang) - and by the way we still do not understand gravity – the cornerstone of star formation.

Was the Higgs boson really detected or does the investment in the LHC now necessitate the publication of its detection – remember the first “proofs” of Einstein’s special relativity theory? Do we again believe the scientific materialists?

I think Heisenberg (Nobel laureate for the creation of quantum mechanics) summed it up nicely:

“This again emphasises a subjective element in the description of atomic events, since the measuring device has been constructed by the observer, and we have to remember that what we observe is not nature in itself but nature exposed to our method of questioning”

To a large extent this is true about basically everything that we try to measure and evaluate.

To start off let us take an example a typical belief namely:  The belief that man is the cause of earth warming (I know the term is global but do not know where global ends – I hope I understand them correctly and that they are only talking about the earth and not the universe)

This is a typical example of a theory that has become a belief - even the UN proclaimed that humans are the main cause of the earth warming and now they will try and limit the impact? (Do we hear the sound of money?) Please understand that I am not saying that humans are not contributing to the warming of the earth – any organism that transforms something for energy is creating heat or some of the gasses /chemicals that we humans (and all living things) create or our tools release, may be detrimental to our present (unstable) environment (this was also the case with microbes that released oxygen into our atmosphere if we can believe the biologists).  Let us just look at a few other factors that should be quantified and also taken into consideration (in these earth warming models/beliefs) to be of any use:

1.       Geological observations tell us that the earth has gone through many cycles of warming and cooling. They could even determine the rates of these climatic changes. The present rate of earth warming is not necessarily out of the normal trends in the past. Since the ice age about 12 000 years ago the earth has been and is still warming at a certain rate and this rate can change according to many other factors. (In 2012/3 the ice areas actually increased instead of decreasing as predicted.) In any case it is an open question whether the averaging (smoothing, series analysis, etc.) of earth temperatures is the correct methodology for the predictive (corrective) models.  Numerous cities have already been found under the sea so the sea levels have risen for at least the past 12000 years or more. So the earth is warming whether we like it or not.

2.      The sun has changed its roughly 11 year cycle of heavy outbursts (with associated radiation) and even Mars is experiencing a warming effect.  It was established that there is a direct link between solar upheavals and weather (on earth) and the full impact is still a matter for further study. There is presently no model that can predict/estimate the behaviour of the sun and its outbursts or the cycle of outbursts or the full impact.

3.      The earth itself is warming as can be seen from the numerous volcanic outbursts as well as tectonic plate movements and associated earthquakes even in the poles. Please note these volcanoes are not spewing out clean air but millions of tonnes of toxic gasses and dust and humans are definitely not even near the origin of these volcanoes. Our prediction of volcanic outbursts is still in its infancy and based on detection of stresses and crust movement.  Not taking submarine volcanoes into consideration there are about 1500 volcanoes on land ((i.e. looking at 25% of earth surface) that are known to have been active. At present, there are about 600 volcanoes that have had known eruptions during recorded history, while about 50-70 volcanoes are active (erupting) each year. Is the ice on the icecaps only melting because of the sun or also from the heat generated by the earth itself?

4.      The magnetic poles of the earth have changed many times before and predictions are that we are now in a similar era. No one really knows the full impact and especially environmental impacts of this change that may happen very quickly or even over a long period of more than 100 years. This can be due to the inner core of the earth rotating/moving/?  and may even be linked to item 3 above.

5.      Stellar instabilities (star quakes) directly affect this planet and it is only now that we can to a certain extent detect and hopefully measure its impact. E.g. On December 27, 2004 a star quake was detected. This star quake occurred 50,000 light years away (i.e. it happened 50,000 years ago). Had the event occurred within a distance of ten light years from Earth, the event could have potentially triggered a mass extinction on Earth

6.       The solar system is rotating around the centre of the milky way and it takes about 225m years for one rotation (cosmic year). Roughly every 62.5m years the earth experience massive changes (climatically, internal changes, extinctions, etc.) [It is postulated that our solar system does not follow a flat elliptical path around the milky way but rather an elliptic sinusoidal path which tends to lengthen the cosmic year to maybe 248-251m years]. Where are we now in these cyclical movements and are we now entering a threat zone?  What are these threats (think about the extinction of the dinosaurs for example)?

7.      The precession of the earth (a cycle of roughly 26 000 years) and its impact on the climate has not been quantified). Interestingly, does any other planet of our solar system also have precession – I believe not (could not find any proof in the literature) . Is this precession not due to the movements of the core of the earth?

As you can see in all these factors humans have no control or play no role nor has it been quantified! (If you cannot quantify the contribution of each of such items to earth warming you may just be wasting your time by concentrating on may be the least of the critical factors for earth warming) 

So if your belief is that humans are the main cause of earth warming (typical within the green belief system) it is fine but please do not try and make it a fact and think that all the people will agree with you.

Unless all factors such as the few mentioned can be quantified and included in the predictive models it will remain just another belief.

Do we really think that humans have the ability to mess with Mother Nature on this scale? Does the earth not recycle about everything given the tectonic plate movements as an example? 

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