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Rama Pillay
 
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Election Analysis in Nominal terms

13 May 2014, 15:15

The election results may have shown alarming trends, upwards for some and downwards for others. Let us look at the numbers and compare it with the previous elections.

Party

2009 Elections

2014 Elections

Difference

%age diff

ANC

11,650,748

11,436,921

-213,827

-2%

DA + ID

3,750,089

4,091,584

341,495

9%

COPE

1,311,027

123,235

-1,187,792

-91%

IFP

804,260

441,854

-362,406

-45%

UDM

149,680

184,636

34,956

23%

FFP

146,796

165,715

18,919

13%

ACDP

142,658

104,039

-38,619

-27%

EFF

1,169,259

1,169,259

New

AIC

97,642

97,642

New

NFP

288,742

288,742

New

NFP + IFP

804,260

730,596

-73,664

-9%

ANC + EFF

11,650,748

12,606,180

955,432

8%

The DA - ID Combination

The DA would claim a meteoric rise in support with its positive showing in the voter numbers. However one needs to be reminded that the DA contested the previous elections before the merger with the Independent Democrats. In analysing the numbers, one needs to combine these two parties then see the net effect.

Having done this, one would see that the DA show a nominal increase of about 10% equating to around 350 000 voters.

The ANC - EFF Separation

In similar terms, lets look at the EFF effect. It would be common sense to assume that the EFF would apprised the ANC voters for its own support base. And we apply the same process of analysis, either by removing or adding EFF voters, a similar pattern arises, a voter increase of around 10% equating to around a million voters.

The COPE Effect

COPE effectively is the dispersion factor. COPE was made up of voters who thought COPE would be the haven for them, those Mbeki supporters and those who needed a party in between the DA and the ANC.

The UDM was also a beneficiary of the COPE dispersion factor as it gained some 50 000 voters.

The IFP - NFP Separation

The NFP rise is the result of the IFP decline.

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