It’s really time for us South African to prepare ourselves for the worst. When I updated my Facebook status the other day saying “Zuma will not get a second term” one of the comments made was “Are you going to be part of the delegate to Mangaung”?
I silently answered to myself “no”. And this is a sad reality with most of us South Africans. Many people I have talk to would like change; but the sad truth is, we are not going to Mangaung.
And this made me interested to look up the numbers of people who will either re-elect or show Zuma an Exit door.
ANC membership numbers somewhat give you clues of what might happen in December. ANC’s membership in its strongest three provinces: KwaZulu-Natal -January: 244 900, now it is 331 820; Eastern Cape – January: 225 597, now it is 187 585; Gauteng – January: 121 223, now it is 909.
ANC’s stronghold province Eastern Cape decreased in numbers by 38 000 while KwaZulu Natal, Zuma’s stronghold province increased its numbers within a space of three months by 86 000.
It’s obvious, Zuma has been a busy man strengthening KZN’s voting power for Mangaung. The growth of KZN speaks for itself.
Now these are the numbers that will represent South Africans in Mangaung with respect to their size KZN will send 974, EC 676, Limpopo 574, Gauteng 500, Mpumalanga 467, FS 324, NW 234, WC 170 and NC 170.
So by the looks of it, Zuma might get a second term as other candidates my feel intimidated to challenge him for the presidency.
But then again there is hope; delegates are not sheep. I dont believe there is homogeneity in province voting behavior; although I know it tends to be very tribal with Eastern Cape Xhosas opposing Zuma and KZN Zulus strongly supporting Zuma.
Zuma getting a second term might be good for provinces such as KZN with more “NkandlaBurg” being built on his second term in office; the ANC will suffer a great deal.
Already, the ANC support in some provinces is on the decline. With some Metros and Municipalities just a few digits away from being taken by the opposition party.
Zuma is really a strong man I must say.
In 2005 Mbeki removed Jacob Zuma from his post as Deputy President of South Africa, after Zuma was implicated in a corruption scandal. In October 2005, some supporters of Zuma burned T-shirts portraying Mbeki's picture at a protest.
In 2006 Jacob Zuma went on trial for allegedly raping an HIV-positive woman. He argued that she had consented to sex and he was eventually found not guilty. There was visible split between Zuma's supporters and Mbeki's allies in the ANC. But Zuma surfaced stronger.
On 20 September 2008, Thabo Mbeki announced his resignation after being recalled by the African National Congress's National Executive Committee, following a conclusion by Judge Nicholson of improper interference in the National Prosecuting Authority including the prosecution of Jacob Zuma for corruption.
On 12 January 2009, the Supreme Court of Appeal unanimously overturned Judge Nicholson’s judgement but the resignation stood.
Today, that man is our president and will be for the next 5 years if those KZN numbers are really strong.