PLEASE NOTE:

MyNews24 is a user-generated section of News24.com. The stories here come from users.

 
MSithole
 
Comments: 12
Article views: 3619
 
 
Latest Badges:


 
View all MSithole's badges.
 

Mangaung: Why Motlanthe will not run

12 October 2012, 15:20

Politics in general is a very intriguing venture. African politics is even much more fascinating. The world over, experts are still trying to get to grips with the mystery of African politician’s mind. History, local or otherwise, is awash with examples of political miscalculations which left many licking their wounds with political careers fallen by the wayside. With Mangaung around the corner, the political grand stage has been set with the opening of the nomination process. The drama can only get more exciting. Analysts are already having a field day. All sorts of theories are being thrown into the fray. The winners takes all that has characterized ANC elections of late only gives headaches to those right in the thick of things.

Of key interest to the ANC and South Africa will be the question of whether there is a presidential contestation at Mangaung 2012.  President Jacob Zuma has given clear signal that he wants a second term. For Deputy President Motlanthe, the question of whether to run or not to run seems to have thrown the veteran politician into a serious dilemma. External pressure for him to declare his ticket has been overwhelming. But, then for him, it is more of accelerating his ascendancy into power. Is it now or later for him? Although it is widely believed that Deputy President Motlanthe wants to throw down the gauntlet he has flatly refused to agree or deny that he is eyeing the higher office come December  2012. Vigorous campaigns for him have been heard from Julius Malema and the ANC Youth League.

Interestingly, influencing the outcome of Mangaung has become the preoccupation of some even in the opposition. We have heard utterances by former President FW De Klerk, Lindiwe Mazibuko and many others who surprisingly want the ANC strengthened by what they term a stronger candidate. One would have thought these would have preferred Zuma whom they call a weaker leader. Am I missing something here?

Motlanthe, being the veteran politician that he is, is aware of the dangers of even a small slip which may see him slide head first into political oblivion.  He has already raised his profile by disclosing in his biography that he had saved Zuma’s political life. He has also disclosed that some within ANC wanted him to retain the Presidency in 2008 when he became the Acting President following President Mbeki’s unceremonious departure.  That has, undoubtedly raised his profile as he, by so doing, showed South Africa that he is not one too greedy for  power to the extent of trying to accelerate his ascendancy into power. This, he will most definitely try to preserve as a true leader is never in a hurry.

 Postponing his rise to power to a later date will surely promote the unity that is desperately needed within the movement. He can be credited as a discipline cadre who puts the interest of the party more than his personal ambitions.

What he has termed “playing by the book” is actually a pseudo term for “playing it safe”.  He knows that the people will remain people. They can push you into risky ventures for their own political advantage.  One politician in some country in Africa once said, “ people can push you to engage into a venture by saying they are right behind you, but too often, in the thick of things, you turn behind you to find out there they are nowhere behind you”. Ummh, African politics? Intriguing!

 History, if it is anything to go by, has it that Motlanthe, as Zuma’s deputy is next in line. Thabo Mbeki took the button from Nelson Mandela.  Jacob Zuma took over from Mbeki. By inference, Motlanthe should be next. His chance after Zuma is almost guaranteed. This would be a safer bet for any risk averse politician. This is a 50:50 gamble race and economics has it that a risk shy individual will not play a game with 50% chance of making it big and 50% to losing it big time.

Motlanthe could easily fall into the hands of the media and other commentators who stand to benefit, through the juicy stories, should there be a contest. But the price tag may prove too dear for the highly intellectual politician because all he will have pursued at this great risk will be an acceleration of his ascendance into power which is almost already his later. It is not a subject of debate that the party is divided. I do not however agree with those who say it was President Zuma who got the party into this state. To the contrary I think the culture of jostling for positions is responsible.  No one can truly deliver in the environment comrade Zuma unenviably found himself in within the movement. Looking at it, one can see that the second term, in the case where there is a limit of two terms in office, is where the incumbent can deliver without the fear of losing a second term.

In African politics, it is never prudent for a deputy to challenge the re-election of the incumbent especially in a party democracy that limits to only two terms. This would be expected in very exceptional cases where the incumbent has grossly failed the party. Entering a contestation with your boss may, on the surface, appear good for democracy but it often leads to unnecessary jostling and even sabotage in some cases as we have seen in the case of Jacob Zuma. A shrewd politician like Motlanthe should not fall prey to pressure from the media and the opposition which are bent on weakening the ANC through entrenching a culture of division within the party with the hope of catapulting themselves into power. Most of the criticisms of Jacob Zuma we have seen within the media of late have not been fair. There is now a declared intention by the media to push Zuma out in Mangaung.

 I may not be a veteran of ANC intra-party politics but, for Motlanthe, many have already come out lobbying for him. Given the current slate voting culture, these may have put their political careers on the line. Let’s hope these will not be like Vice President Phumzile Mlambo Ngcuka and those other senior ANC cadres who jumped into COPE bandwagon when it was widely believed that former President Mbeki was following right after them. The problem always befalls those who put their necks on the block too quickly. Hard lessons indeed!

Motlanthe being a shrewd politician will not just jump. Testing the waters and feeling the direction of the wind first seems to be what his wisdom is dictating. If it turns out, to be a 50:50 gamble, as I suggest above, I can’t see him jumping into the waters. After all he doesn’t have anything to lose. He will do better when the spirit of Polokwane is dealt a blow and unity reinforced through Zuma’s re-election at Mangaung 2012. He knows that way also he will have few headaches, stomach aches and heart aches from vultures within the movement when finally elected.

Disclaimer: All articles and letters published on MyNews24 have been independently written by members of News24's community. The views of users published on News24 are therefore their own and do not necessarily represent the views of News24. News24 editors also reserve the right to edit or delete any and all comments received.
 

Read News24’s Comments Policy

24.com publishes all comments posted on articles provided that they adhere to our Comments Policy. Should you wish to report a comment for editorial review, please do so by clicking the 'Report Comment' button to the right of each comment.

Comment on this story
12 comments
Add your comment
Comment 0 characters remaining

Read more from our Users

Submitted by
Meta
News in the digital age

How do you think that spreading your hate/bigotry and or intolerance helps anybody? Read more...

13 comments 1003 views
Submitted by
Brian Faul
How and why a Dictator is born

One needs to remember looking back in history these hard times is when a dictator is more likely to get born. It is during these hard times that a dictator gets voted into power. Read more...

10 comments 1825 views
Submitted by
Prenisha Naidoo
I will be proactive...

This letter is in response to articles on the death of baby Jamie Naidoo, We have the tendency to be reactive…we wait for something to happen, then suddenly we care, writes a News24 User. Read more...

2 comments 443 views
Submitted by
woadstress
Celebration

Make a list of at least ten things that you can celebrate, and write two or three reasons why you can celebrate those things or events. Read more...

1 comments 157 views
Submitted by
Eric de Castro
Last squeak of the year

 Read more...

13 comments 230 views
Submitted by
MarkH

Jobs in Cape Town [change area]

Property [change area]

HOUSES FOR SALE IN Paarl

Houses R 2 690 000

HOUSES FOR SALE IN Hermanus

Houses R 2 680 000

Travel - Look, Book, Go!

Kalahari.com - shop online today

2DAYS ONLY – 30% off Appliances

Coffee makers, blenders, fans, juicers and more. T&Cs apply. Shop now!

2 DAYS ONLY – 40% off books

Get 40% off when you buy 2 books. For two days only! T&Cs apply. Buy now!

Up to 50% off on outdoor gear

Save on chairs, blankets, cooler bags, umbrellas and more. Shop now!

Save on Samsung

Cameras, mobile phones, TVs, Tablets and more. While stocks last. Shop now!

Grand Theft Auto 5

Now available on PS4, Xbox One and PC from R649. Buy now!

OLX Free Classifieds [change area]

Samsung Galaxy s4

Mobile, Cell Phones in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 24

Best bargain in big bay

Real Estate, Houses - Apartments for Sale in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 25

VW Golf 6, 1.6 Trendline (Excellent condition)

Vehicles, Cars in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 25

 

services

E-mail Alerts The latest headlines in your inbox

RSS feeds News delivered really simply.

Mobile News24 on your mobile or PDA

E-mail Newsletters You choose what you want

News24 on your iPhone Get News24 headlines on your iPhone.

SMS Alerts Get breaking news stories via SMS.

Blogs Your opinion on you, me and everyone.

Calais Website keywords automated by OpenCalais.

 
Interactive Advertising Bureau
 
© 2014 24.com. All rights reserved.
There are new stories on the homepage. Click here to see them.
 
English
Afrikaans
isiZulu

Hello 

Create Profile

Creating your profile will enable you to submit photos and stories to get published on News24.


Please provide a username for your profile page:

This username must be unique, cannot be edited and will be used in the URL to your profile page across the entire 24.com network.

Settings

Location Settings

News24 allows you to edit the display of certain components based on a location. If you wish to personalise the page based on your preferences, please select a location for each component and click "Submit" in order for the changes to take affect.








Facebook Sign-In

Hi News addict,

Join the News24 Community to be involved in breaking the news.

Log in with Facebook to comment and personalise news, weather and listings.