Here are some facts and figures for politically-minded - and logical - South Africans which I am going to use to show why – as we currently stand, and unless we make changes - the ANC will continue to rule, regardless of their poor governance, their ineptitude and their unenviable status of being probably the worst government in the world, possibly with the exclusion of Zimbabwe and other failed states.
We are of course talking about majority rule here, which in South Africa’s case equates to the rule of the numbers which in turn - given our present situation - is getting very close to being mob rule.
2009 General Election Results:
Population was approximately 49,3 million.
Registered voters numbered 23,181,997 - just over 40% of the population, the rest being children or those, due to other factors, ineligible to vote - of which 19,919,966 voted, an 85% turn out.
Results for the 4 main parties – with no other obtaining 1% of the vote – were as follows:
African National Congress (ANC) – 11,650,748 votes, 65,9% of the vote;
Democratic Alliance (DA) – 2,945,829 votes, 17,7% of the vote;
Congress of the People (COPE) – 1,311,027 votes, 7,4% of the vote;
Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) – 804,260 votes, 4,5% of the vote.
Interestingly enough, the remaining parties received in total some 3,2 million votes which could either have given the ANC well over 70% of the vote or, for instance, the DA about 30%.
Such are the vagaries which result from having such a disjointed and fragmented opposition when faced with a ruling party enjoying a huge majority.
A united opposition could have received over 8 million votes which would have made them a force to be reckoned with but they all obviously decided to just go with the flow, pick up the perks and salaries, and not rock the boat which is now leaving us in a pretty pickle.
2009 Population 2012 Population
Black - 39,136,200 Black – 41,000,938
Coloured - 4,433,100 Coloured – 4,615,401
Asian - 1,279,100 Asian – 1,286,930
White - 4,472,100 White – 4,586,838
Total - 49,320,400 Total – 51,490,106
What is graphically shown here is that since the 2009 elections the number of blacks has grown by almost 2 million – 1,864,738 in fact – whilst the number of coloureds has grown by 182,301, the Asians by 7,830 and the whites by 114,738.
Total population growth – as noted above – has been 2,1 million of which blacks constitute some 1,8 million – about 86%.
Politically speaking it is thus obvious that to overturn the ANC government there would have to be a swing – a massive swing – of some 5-7 million away from the ANC to the four major opposition parties. Coupled with this there would also have to be some sort of coalition between the three main opposition parties to effectively keep the ANC out of power.
Given the current birth rates of the individual population groups however, the ANC would soon be returned to power, once more on the back of the unemployed youth, and we would be back where we started.
It should be noted here that approximately 20 million of the population are below the age of 20 years of age and they will progressively have a larger impact on both the economics and the politics of the country within the next 10 years and for this they need(ed) to be educated, one of the ANC’s biggest failures which is going to hurt our future.
Currently a party needs to win at least 10 million votes to obtain power and this is not possible for any of the opposition given the demographics, and makeup, of the country, especially if the electorate continue to vote along racial lines.
In the 2009 elections people – especially the black and white electorate – voted almost purely on racial lines, the blacks for the ANC and the whites for the DA.
COPE got the disillusioned ANC voters, Inkatha had a fair amount of Zulus voting for them and large numbers of the coloureds voted for the DA, especially in the Western Cape.
The above data also shows why the ANC are so keen to keep the coloured vote away from the opposition parties – as per their statements of late regarding the Western Cape and also government’s response to the strike actions of farm workers.
Given all of the above it is probably fair to say that irrespective of the corruption, the ineptitude and the obvious flaws in the ANC, it will quite possibly win 70% of the vote in the 2014 elections, and progressively more thereafter especially given that the total population growth over the past 3-4 years has been almost 90% black.
With a fragmented and uselessly divided opposition they cannot fail to retain power, probably for years to come.
Economically the picture will get no better either, probably just a lot worse.
Disregarding statistics supplied by SARS - which are compiled and published purely to match their own agenda/propaganda wherein they state that there are currently about 13 million registered tax payers – there are in fact approximately 15 million grant recipients, probably about 1 million civil servants and additionally about 30% of companies pay no tax as they are losing money.
Another fact which the SARS doesn’t bother to highlight is that 6-7 million of these “tax payers” pay no tax as they fall below the tax threshold.
When further analysed we discover that about 1,5 million taxpayers – 3% of the population – pay 84% of the income tax which Pravin Gordhan then uses to bail the rest of the country out with.
This obviously cannot continue for long as these 1,5 million are being sucked dry and yet they are the ones creating jobs, paying the bills and generally keeping the country afloat.
Two further factors should be noted here.
Firstly, the ANC are fond of saying that they have contributed the most to addressing the unemployment problem in the past few years by employing more people in the public sector. This may well be so but these employees contribute very little to the economy – they actually detract from it - and these statements thus add no value and are merely disingenuous, a smokescreen.
What is needed is for government to create the necessary framework within which companies can create jobs - permanent jobs - and unfortunately government cannot do this as they are hamstrung by their politically-motivated union alliance which means that it’s basically a stand-off.
This then ties up directly with the next point which is that companies are sitting on cash to the value of about R 500 billion which they are unwilling to invest until they see which way things go.
These companies will not invest in a country plagued by union action, strikes, violence and political insincerity when they need to make profits for themselves, their shareholders and thereafter the country. It’s a lose-lose situation for all.
With the number of grant recipients steadily growing – as the ANC attempts to keep civil unrest at bay – the economy idling as miners, and others, attempt to get more money from employers, the currency collapsing and companies unable to make profits the situation will further deteriorate, especially for those at the bottom – the unemployed, the sick and the youth with no working experience and a poor education.
There is only one way out of this mess and it’s very unpalatable I know but it is both a long term solution and the only viable one left given the mess the ANC have inherited and then further aggravated with their cadre deployment, wasteful spending, inept handling and decadent actions.
The electoral laws need to be revised to enable those contributing the most to have a bigger say in who manages the country, who determines its path and growth and who benefits from these decisions.
We can no longer allow a situation where those not contributing at all are deciding for all what is done – obviously to benefit them the most - as in the medium to long term this will drag us all down and destroy what is left of the economy, and the country.
Convicts, politicians, those not earning an income (legally) – including grant recipients – and those being clothed, fed and paid who contribute nothing - like the cadres who are political appointments, or friends of friends - need to basically be disenfranchised until they are in a position once more to contribute to the financial well-being of the country.
They are basically parasites, sponging of us, and they are already being looked after. Why should they now vote as well? Politicians already are mostly also involved in business, for their own account, so they would still get to vote but as for the rest; we don’t need them, they are not assisting us and they perform no useful purpose whatsoever.
Those owning business, even homes, and those working in the private sector would then need to be compensated – actually motivated – and this could be done by making their votes more powerful, or more heavily weighted.
Socialism and capitalism, being used at different levels and by different people for different agendas, are incompatible given both our current situation and what is needed to grow the economy and this has to be ironed out.
Perhaps if the ANC divorced itself from COSATU – especially given that their goals are no longer even remotely similar – and stood as an independent political entity allowing the formation of a real socialist/communist party comprising of the unions and the SACP we would have more balance in the political arena. Perhaps too if the fragmented opposition parties, some 25 in number, could realign themselves with the specific goal of forming a more united and cohesive opposition we would get somewhere but we would also need economic growth, stability and the return of law and order to make this all work and these things require political will which the ANC no longer seems to have.
We need all these things to happen, and soon, or else we will continue to stand still, dead in the water as it were, and slip even further behind many growing African economies.
As a country we can no longer force a dwindling number of wealth - and job - creators to continue paying for a growing number of socialists, sitting on their asses, drinking beer, watching soaps, stealing when they must and making babies who will in their turn do the same.
Eventually the money will run out, this must be obvious to all, and then so will the patience of the people.