Thank you Julius Malema and your creators for saving South Africa. No really, thank you! Not for the reasons you might think. Malema’s EFF is aimed slap bang at the LSMs 1-4. Roughly, this group of people earn less than R2,000 a month.
In terms of numbers, they make up a substantial portion of the population – about 40%. Traditionally, they have made up the bulk of the ANC’s support base. From 2000 onwards, there has been a generally migration upwards in terms of income. So the ANC’s support base has moved up the wealth chain, a lot due to social grants (or put another way, massive wealth redistribution from the wealthy to the poor).
Hence the ANC alliance’s early successes. A cynic would argue these votes were bought. In any event, things have changed.
There is a new group of poor people at the bottom of the chain that are not migrating upwards – in terms of the LSMs about 40% of adults. These are the hunting grounds of the EFF and it explains why EFF has been so successful.
EFF will score at least 10% at the elections and possibly as high as 25%. These votes will come directly from the ANC’s share. So the ANC was on 65% - after EFF’s harvesting the ANC will be close to 50% or lower. The balance of the vote will largely go the DA.
So we have a situation where the ANC will have to strike deals to remain in power. EFF will self-evidently not be an option, since they will have cannibalised the ANC. The ANC will have no choice but to adopt the policies of the DA, which are more closely in line with the ANC support base that it will have left.
And so, EFF will have pushed the ANC towards the DA. And saved South Africa. After a decade of disaster, we may finally have hope that SA will survive. And thrive. Viva Juju Viva.
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