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What's wrong with the picture

03 September 2012, 20:01

I worked at a telecom company for eight years as international sales manager. My engineer was a wonderful man named Bill Kubicki. If I was getting ready to make a big mistake he would come up to me and calmly ask this question:

"Jack what's wrong with this picture?"

Most of the time I did not have an answer. Bill would then sit me down beside him and go through the problem in detail and give me the right answer that saved my neck. Each one of these talks was a wonderful learning experience for me.

Bill Kubicki would look at the whole picture with Iran and ask that same tried and true question:

"Jack what's wrong with this picture?"

In this case I would have an answer for him. It is odd that the Iranians are building more and more centrifuges to create weapons-grade plutonium. It would be fairly easy to buy such fissile material from Pakistan that is very sympathetic to all Muslims. In the second case they could buy the fissile material from North Korea that is always hungry for money. I would not be surprised to hear that Iran already has enough fissile material for a few bombs  or some crude tactical nuclear war heads.

Going further in my response to Bill Kubicki, I would "throw cold water" on this whole idea that Isreal is going to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities with their F-15 and F-16 fighters bought from the USA. The best shot they would have with aircraft is a direct flight over Syria. This would only happen if the rebels in Syria disabled the sophisticated Russian air defense system provided to the Assad government. That is a questionable proposition.

I would tell Bill that if I was the Israeli military planner I would call for an attack using submarine-launched cruise missiles and short range-ballistic missiles launched from Israel. If the warheads had precision guidance they would land right on the target. Iran is the maker of the finest concrete in the word so the warheads would have to be designed to penetrate deeply before detonating. I would surmise that low-yield and light-weight tactical nuclear weapons would have to be employed to destroy such strongly-constructed facilities.

Having said all of that I would next tell Bill that the Iranians would fight back fiercely when they are attacked. They would strike out at Israel and the USA. The United States would be drawn into the war that follows. If it happens before the presidential election,Obama will be seen as a president in time of war and he will not be voted out of office.

I would go on to tell Bill that the Iranians are never to be underestimated. Their counter attack will be clever and destructive. The Strait of Hormuz will be closed. Oil prices and gold prices will "go through the roof."

I would tell Bill that American naval units in the Persian Gulf would be attacked. Missiles would rain down on Israel. Terrorist attacks would happen in Europe and the USA.

I would tell Bill that Russia would not come to Iran's aid. They will sit back cynically and watch the price of oil go up to $250.00+ per barrel. As the old saying goes: "They will be laughing all the way to the bank." The Chinese will be losing over 6% of their oil imports. It would make no sense to them to go to war to recover these lost oil imports. I'm sure they already have contingency plans to source the oil elsewhere.

I would warn Bill that Pakistan is 'a wild card here." They will give Iran all sorts of secret aid. They will act cynically and "let Iran do their dirty work."

I would end my comments to Bill by saying that the war with Iran will either be long and very bloody or short and extremely bloody with weapons of mass destruction used by both sides. I would sadly tell Bill that It is very likely that we will see nuclear weapons fired in anger for the first time since 1945.

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