PLEASE NOTE:

MyNews24 is a user-generated section of News24.com. The stories here come from users.

 
JohnMatthews
 
Comments: 7
Article views: 411
 
 
Latest Badges:


 
View all JohnMatthews's badges.
 

Where to now ANC?

10 May 2014, 20:45

Where to now ANC; the Board or the Narrow path?

(This analysis is based upon the preliminary results available on News24 election website.)

So the election is over and all the usual rhetoric is being unleashed by the politicians.  There indeed seems to be nothing new under the sun as the spin doctors are trying furiously to make us forget all the promises the politicians made to convince you to put your cross next to their party.

However, this has to be the most interesting election since 1994 and it is likely to have huge consequences for the ANC.  They literally must choose their path forward; I would suggest to you that they have a broad path and a narrow path and as the bible says; ‘wide is the gate, and broad is the way, that leadeth to destruction, and many there be which go in there at;’

In order to come to this conclusion I had a cursory look at the election results and this forced me to ask ‘where did the additional  1 169 004 EFF and 1 130 444 DA votes come from in excess to those garnered in 2009?’

That is an additional 2.4 million votes for these two parties which were somewhere else in 2009.  The total number of votes increased by  716 000 so it is clear that, in addition to the new voters,  there were many who switched allegiances.

In my analysis, I escalated all the votes received in 1994 proportionally by the additional 716 000 votes and the big discrepancies became as follows:

ANC lost 681k

DA gained 1012k

Eff gained 1170k

COPE lost 1240k

IFP lost 105k (if you add IFP to NFP)

ID lost 169k

And everyone else changed by less than 100k so I will ignore them for the sake of simplicity in this analysis.

I then made some assumptions.  I put all the lost ID votes into DA as these parties integrated.  I then had to allocate a percentage split for the IFP cotes, the ANC votes and COPE vote.

The net change of IFP+NFP is small enough to ignore.  Any change in the percentage you allocated to the DA or EFF is swamped by the COPE and the ANC numbers.  Also if you add all the PAC, AZAPO & APO change in votes to EFF, they are still small numbers.

So essentially the question is how much of the ANC lost votes and the COPE lost votes went to the EFF and the DA respectively, either directly or displacing votes from other parties and having a net effect on these two parties.  I made a guess based on my own worldview that two thirds of the lost ANC votes went to EFF and one third to DA. 

I then assumed that the many lost COPE votes were split evenly between these two parties.  These two assumptions, accurate or inaccurate, balanced the figures nicely.

If my assumptions were right (which I almost guarantee they would not be) this means that the EFF vote came from 450 000 ANC votes and 620 000 COPE votes.  The DA votes would have come from 150 000 ANC votes and 620 000 COPE votes.  Remember COPE votes were always as much as ‘not voting for the ANC’ as they were about voting for Lekota.

So, what is the conclusion?  The ANC has had a wonderful result (at least from their perspective).  Despite problems within Cosatu and all the eTolls and Nkandla noise, they still had a spectacular win.  They have lost much of their more militant support to EFF and now have the opportunity to pursue more business friendly policies that will benefit the economy and generate jobs.  

In doing so they will stem the vote leakage to the DA.  This is the narrow path and it will require the ANC to reinvent themselves in the mould of Trevor Manuel, Cyril Ramaphosa and Mbeki. 

Or,

They can woe back the militants from Julius-come-lately.  In doing so they must rely on their popularity with the working class and implement policies which would be anti-capitalistic in nature.  They will be forced to out-shout Malema and drive more voters into the hands of the DA.  This is the broad path….they know how to garner this sort of support; sing struggle songs, hand out T-shirts and sell Mandela and Hani.  The problem is that this will truly cause our beloved country to cry.

So ANC, congratulations on your win.  Now, what is it to be, the broad or the narrow path?

‘Broad is the way, that leadeth to destruction, and many there be which go in there at:  Because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it.’ 

Disclaimer: All articles and letters published on MyNews24 have been independently written by members of News24's community. The views of users published on News24 are therefore their own and do not necessarily represent the views of News24. News24 editors also reserve the right to edit or delete any and all comments received.

 

Read News24’s Comments Policy

24.com publishes all comments posted on articles provided that they adhere to our Comments Policy. Should you wish to report a comment for editorial review, please do so by clicking the 'Report Comment' button to the right of each comment.

Comment on this story
7 comments
Add your comment
Comment 0 characters remaining

Read more from our Users

Submitted by
CharlesSzente
How to create long term wealth fo...

I believe, in the real world, life actually follows reasonable principles. Despite the baffle and Bull, the short term push and pull, even exploitation, eventually the multitude of forces kicks you back to reality. For us that simply means, if as a country we want to grow, we have to invest.  Read more...

1 comments 68 views
Submitted by
Gail Shorkend
The world

How the world has changed. It used to be a peaceful world. You had stress. But the stress is not like these days. Read more...

2 comments 18 views
Submitted by
Linamandla Mpolase
Letter to the Capitalist God

I constantly ask myself what is the point of everything? A complex question and awfully deep but I know it is a question not unique to me. Possibly many of you have had similar thoughts. But really what is the point of it all? Read more...

15 comments 325 views
Submitted by
Dewald Esterhuizen
Humanity a rarity

I am reading so much upon this lion being killed and I see the outrage in America and the extreme extend to which they go to persecute this dentist. Read more...

21 comments 822 views
Submitted by
Jenny Reid
Identity Crisis! What to do when ...

While these people must deal with the inconvenience of applying for new passports, there’s a far more sinister issue at play. Read more...

0 comments 294 views
Submitted by
Ann Muigai
Focus on what truly matters

“Never” is an infectious word, like a flu virus. Once you’ve caught it, everything loses its sparkle. It’s commonplace to hear people say and swear that they will never do, forget or say something. Read more...

2 comments 179 views
 

services

E-mail Alerts The latest headlines in your inbox

RSS feeds News delivered really simply.

Mobile News24 on your mobile or PDA

E-mail Newsletters You choose what you want

News24 on Android Get the latest from News24 on your Android device.

SMS Alerts Get breaking news stories via SMS.

Blogs Your opinion on you, me and everyone.

TV Get us in your home, on your television.

 
Interactive Advertising Bureau
 
© 2015 24.com. All rights reserved.
There are new stories on the homepage. Click here to see them.
 
English
Afrikaans
isiZulu

Hello 

Create Profile

Creating your profile will enable you to submit photos and stories to get published on News24.


Please provide a username for your profile page:

This username must be unique, cannot be edited and will be used in the URL to your profile page across the entire 24.com network.

Settings

Location Settings

News24 allows you to edit the display of certain components based on a location. If you wish to personalise the page based on your preferences, please select a location for each component and click "Submit" in order for the changes to take affect.




Facebook Sign-In

Hi News addict,

Join the News24 Community to be involved in breaking the news.

Log in with Facebook to comment and personalise news, weather and listings.