South Africa has the perfect ingredients for creating failure and disaster.
Firstly there are too many unemployed people and most of them are unemployable because they lack proper training and many of them do not have the capasity to benefit from training because they suffer from fetal alcohol syndrome or other such impairments caused by misuse of drugs or alcohol by their mothers during pregnancy or by being addicted themselves. Many of these unfortunate youngsters turn to crime from boredom or to make a living of some kind.
Secondly we have a failed education system because of incompetent administrators and teachers as well as poor discipline , low standards and tuition which is far below par in most schools. Hundreds of thousands drop out before matric and join the jobless. Many of those who pass matric also join the jobless because they do not qualify for tertiary studies and cannot find work because they lack the necessary skills. Many of those who qualify for higher education also fail and drop out because low standards or inflated marks gain them admission but they cannot cope with university requirements.
A third cause of our dilemma is a goverment that is not equal to the task of governing the country. When the ANC came into power they started replacing competent experienced bureacrats with unqualified people without any experience of running a civil service. Cadres without the necessary skills are rewarded with top goverment positions and when they fail to make the grade they get shifted to other positions.
The result of this is poor governance , maladministration, poor service delivery , misappropriation of public funds and massive corruption because of poor control.
A fourth reason why the country is sure to fail is because the ANC-Alliance consists of partners with totally conflicting ideologies. The marxists want a totalitarian state and are against a liberal democracy and a free economy.
Cosatu leaders are socialists who are toned-down communists with their own little kingdom based on worker support. The ANC diehards are democrats because it gives them respectability and they are also capitalists because it gives them access to wealth and ostentatious living.
Last but not least a large part of the population consists of poor, highly emotional , exitable people who are easily stirred into frenzied violence by agitators. Recent examples are the violent demonstrations at Lonmin-mine and all over the Boland.
That is why I am pessimistic about our chances of success.