Africa takes election test
18/11/2004 14:53  - (SA)  

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Observer 'Zim violence veteran' Zim expats banned from voting Namibia going to the polls Zim must solve own issues - SA

Waldimar Pelser

Botswana and Namibia were the first two countries to go to the polls after the new election charter for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) was accepted in August.

Heads-of-state from all 13 countries in the region committed themselves to freedom of association and the media, political tolerance and equal participation in the political process.

President Thabo Mbeki warned that those who did not live up to these standards would be kicked out of the SADC.

"Before, we never had acceptable standards to which everyone was committed. Now there is such a guideline," says Tim Hughes of the South African Institute for International Affairs (SAIIA).

Dieudonne Tshiyoyo of the Election Institute of South Africa (Eisa) believes such standards could help to prevent conflict at election time through a common understanding of the dos and don'ts.

But who sticks to the rules?

In Botswana, the first country where the charter could be tested, Esisa declared the October 20 elections "free and largely fair".

Eisa recommended a few reforms that would ensure better political representation, particularly for women and smaller parties.

The results of the Namibian elections, which went "very well" according to this country's election commission, are expected on Thursday.

There were some complaints that the ruling party was given more television airtime and that opposition presidential candidates received little coverage.

The standards require equal participation in the political process and free access to the media for all political parties.

But earlier fears that President Sam Nujoma, who has governed the county for 14 years, would insist on serving another term, proved to be groundless.

Tshiyoyo says this sends out a "strong message that leaders understand the new rules of the game".

However, experts believe the standards will really be tested in the next two elections: in Mozambique on December 1 and 2 and in Zimbabwe in March next year.

In Mozambique, Frelimo and Renamo seem to be neck and neck.

In Zimbabwe, the elections seem to be "skewed" already.

"Mozambique will be a difficult case for the SADC. There is a strong opposition (Renamo), with roots in the armed struggle. It had to transform itself from a struggle organisation to a full-fledged opposition party, which controls large parts of the country and has already complained that the playing fields are not level," Hughes says.

He is waiting in anticipation to see how the major players in Mozambique conduct themselves, but is more concerned over whether the new norms and standards would survive the "very difficult case" of Zimbabwe.

Meanwhile, the Mugabe government has been hard at work to create conditions that will "skew" voting in March, writes Elizabeth Sidiropoulos of SAIIA in the SADC Barometer.

Another election watchdog, Mauritius Watch, keeps a weekly record of Mugabe's blatant disregard for the charter he signed in Port Louis, Mauritius, in August.

'Rather postpone it'

The violations alleged by Mauritius Watch include arrests of journalists, people forced to attend meetings of the ruling Zanu-PF party, bans on meetings of the opposition and civil organisations as well as government's attempt at brainwashing the youth through propaganda.

Chris Maroleng of the Institute for Security Studies believes the SADC rules are "a good sign, but not nearly enough".

He is looking for real changes in institutions such as the parliament, courts, police and the defence force that are supposed to protect democracy.

The election standards are only useful if supported by "serious penalties" against countries that ignore the rules.

"With laws that obviously advantage Zanu-PF, as well as the mobilisation of paramilitary organisations such as the youth brigade and war veterans, its seems unlikely that Zimbabwe will have free and fair elections," Maroleng explains.

He believes the elections should rather be postponed.

Then there is the question whether election observers in problem countries such as Zimbabwe will ever agree on what is free and fair in an election, even if a set of universal standards exists.

After Zimbabwe's controversial presidential elections in 2002, only one observer team from Africa - the SADC parliamentary forum - declared that the elections did not comply with democratic requirements. Teams from Europe and elsewhere were highly critical.

Observers were apparently generally approving of the recent elections in Botswana and Namibia, but all observers have not yet commented.

Mozambique is gearing up for its big test, while experts believe Zimbabwe is already undermining the SADC's well-intentioned standards.