Number of refugees 'inflated'

2008-11-18 22:49

Cairo - A new study says the estimated number of Iraqi refugees living in Egypt has been over-inflated, but the United Nations refugee agency on Tuesday cast doubt about the survey's methodology.

An investigation by a research team from the American University in Cairo (AUC) said, based on its survey, that the number of Iraqi refugees in Egypt was between 15 000 and 20 000.

"We've arrived at a credible figure... that is far from the figures that had been offered," Philippe Fargues, director of the Centre for Migration and Refugee Studies at the AUC said

Previous estimates have said that between 80 000 and 120 000 Iraqi refugees were living in Egypt after fleeing violence in the wake of the 2003 US-led invasion.

The new study was the first of its kind in Egypt, where the government has not publicised a number for Iraqi refugees.

Refugee groups say they were provided an estimate of 50 000 to 100 000 Iraqis by the Egyptian foreign ministry, which has nevertheless not conducted a census of the refugees.

However, the survey's methodology, which relied on networks of refugees interviewed by researchers, has come under scrutiny.

"The study used snowballing: people providing contacts," said Abeer Etefa of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

"If you talk to statisticians, they'll tell you that's not scientific and, from a statistical point of view, not significant," she said.

Etefa added however the study was a "good first step".

The study came to its estimate after finding that 63% of the 1 004 respondents were registered with UNHCR, and then used UNHCR figures on the number of Iraqis it had registered, about 10 000.

- AFP