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Zim elections: An opportunity
24/03/2005 10:07 - (SA)
Harare - Zimbabwe heads for elections next week that the opposition charges will not be free and fair, but that could hand President Robert Mugabe a fresh opportunity to pull the southern African country out of crisis, analysts say.
Barring a major upset, the elections to 120 contested seats in the 150-member parliament are expected to be won by Mugabe's ruling Zanu-PF party, in power since independence from Britain in 1980.
After threatening for months to boycott the March 31 vote, the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) finally decided to field candidates in the polls to "keep the flames of hope for change alive".
But the MDC has drawn up a laundry list of election flaws - including irregularities in the voters' roll, biased media coverage and the refusal by police to grant them permission to hold rallies - that it says are robbing the elections of any legitimacy.
Landslide victory expected
An independent poll released by University of Zimbabwe professor Joseph Kurebga on Wednesday predicted a landslide victory of 83 seats for Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF).
"What the country needs now is not a winner but solutions," says Brian Kagoro, director of the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition of civic groups.
"We inevitably need to shift from the politics of drawing battle lines to focussing on nation-building," he says.
One post-election scenario described by Zimbabwe expert Chris Maroleng of South Africa's Institute for Security Studies is that Mugabe's party would use its big majority to change the constitution and create a new post of executive prime minister.
The new post would allow Mugabe to retire to "a largely ceremonial presidency and serving out his term in this role until it expires in 2008."
"This, and the creation of a prime ministership to handle the important affairs of government would be a possible avenue by which to accommodate a continuing role for Mugabe as 'Father of the Nation', while permitting policy shifts to allow for some accommodation with the international community," says Maroleng.
But infighting within Zanu-PF late last year that led to a major purge has left the party bruised and it remains unclear whether the ruling clique will not be hobbled in its plans.
The succession battle, which nearly split the party, resulted in the rise of Joyce Mujuru, a woman veteran of the liberation movement and wife of powerful retired army commander Solomon Mujuru.
Another wild card is the bid by Mugabe's former propaganda chief, Jonathan Moyo, to win a seat as an independent candidate after he fell out of favour with the president for supporting a rival candidate to Mujuru for the vice-presidency, Emmerson Mnangagwa.
Polls show that Moyo could win victory in the Tsholotsho constituency, becoming a possible rallying point in post-election Zimbabwe for other politicans sidelined by Mugabe.
- AFP
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