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Zim govt shows signs of panic
16/04/2007 20:31 - (SA)
Harare - Zimbabwe's government, which has indefinitely postponed the latest set of inflation figures, appears increasingly panicked over its losing battle against the country's "economic HIV," analysts said.
Central Statistical Office acting director Moffat Nyoni told AFP on Monday he was still hoping to announce the figures for March by the end of the week after ironing out a "few technical glitches."
But a finance ministry staffer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the CSO was under instructions to "withhold the figures until further notice."
After the inflation announcement was postponed twice last week, also for "technical" reasons, most observers believe the real explanation is a sense of panic over the surge beyond the 2 000% mark, defying previous forecasts.
"Official projections have been far off the mark and naturally there is anxiety on the part of the officials," financial analyst Best Doroh told AFP.
"But there is no way to water down the figures to match the official predictions because the movement of prices is in the opposite direction to what has been projected."
When the CSO announced a month ago that the February inflation rate had jumped by another 137 points to a staggering 1 730%, it further undermined a prediction by then Finance Minister Herbert Murerwa in December that the figure would fall to around 300 percent by the end of the year.
Witness Chinyama, an economist with finance group Kingdom Financial Holdings, said it was clear the government had once again been unable to halt the inflation juggernaut with the cost of living increasing by the day.
"One can speculate that the postponement may be due to figures which could be higher than officials anticipated," said Chinyama.
"But it's obvious the figure will be higher following wholesale price increases as businesses anticipated a wage freeze and the rise in fuel prices."
After the announcement last month, Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa remarked that his southern neighbour had "sunk into such economic difficulties that it may be likened to a sinking Titanic."
Even central bank governor Gideon Gono was moved to compare the inflation rate - now the highest in the world - to the AIDS pandemic.
"Inflation has ceased to be just the number one enemy. It is now actually the economic HIV of this country," Gono said in remarks carried by the state-controlled Herald newspaper.
Inflation 'could reach 5 000%'
When the rate reached four figures in May last year, the announcement was also delayed for several days but Chinyama said that fudging figures would not halt the mounting economic woes.
"It's like the HIV and AIDS problems and you need to publicise the true figures and adopt measures to deal with the problem rather than sweep things under the carpet and continue under the impression that all is well," he said.
Murerwa had predicted that inflation would be reined in by a marginal economic growth propelled by good weather, stabilising of commodity prices, improved mineral deposits and increased tourists arrivals.
But the International Monetary Fund director for Africa, Abdoulaye Bio-Tchane, told South Africa's public broadcaster SABC over the weekend that he expected the figure by the end of the year could reach 5 000%.
Zimbabwe's econony has been on a downturn over the past seven years characterised by world-record inflation along with four in every five persons out of work and perennial shortages of commodities like sugar, cooking oil and fuel.
Over 80% of the population is living below the poverty threshold often skipping meals or cycling or walking long distances to work in order to stretch their wages.
The government blames the economic crisis on targetted sanctions imposed on veteran President Robert Mugabe and members of his inner circle by the United States and the European Union following presidential polls in 2002 which the opposition and western observers charged were rigged.
- AFP
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