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West must back Mbeki - ICG
18/09/2007 15:20 - (SA)
Johannesburg - Western powers should back South African mediation as the only real chance of stopping Zimbabwe's collapse, says an influential think-tank.
The Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) said Western sanctions had failed and attacks on President Robert Mugabe by London and Washington were counter-productive.
Mediation by President Thabo Mbeki "offers the only realistic chance to escape a crisis that increasingly threatens to destabilise the region", said the ICG in a report.
It said: "It is critical that all international actors close ranks behind the Mbeki mediation."
A grouping of southern African nations had mandated Mbeki to secure a deal on constitutional reform between Mugabe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change ahead of March 2008 presidential and parliamentary polls.
SADC 'must resolve differences'
The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) said Mbeki had made progress. But Western diplomats disagreed. The ICG said SADC must resolve internal differences about how hard to press Mugabe into retirement.
Mugabe, 83 and in power since independence from Britain in 1980, faced few political challenges. His opponents were weak and international efforts to undermine him had had little impact.
The ICG said: "Western sanctions - mainly targeting just more than 200 members of the leadership with travel bans and asset freezes - have proven largely symbolic.
"And general condemnations from the UK and the United States if anything (are) counter-productive because they help Mugabe claim he is the victim of neo-colonial ambitions."
The ICG said the opportunity should be seized to influence Mugabe as he came under mounting economic pressure.
Zim 'once a prosperous country'
The report said: "Through repression and patronage, Mugabe can still control politics, but not the deteriorating economy - including runaway inflation - which is hurting the region more than ever before.
"Unease about the crisis's impact is mounting across southern Africa and may override constraints that previously prevented determined action."
Zimbabwe, once one of Africa's most prosperous countries, suffered the world's highest inflation rate, officially put at 6 592%, chronic food and fuel shortages and 80% unemployment.
Mugabe denied destroying the economy with policies like seizing white-owned farms for landless blacks, widely blamed for crippling the agriculture sector. He says the West has sabotaged the Zimbabwe economy in retaliation for farm seizures.
The ICG said: "Six months before scheduled elections, Zimbabwe is closer than ever to complete collapse." Mugabe, who also denied charges of widespread human rights abuses, had been manoeuvring to tighten his grip on power.
His government had introduced a bill to give blacks majority ownership of foreign firms.
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