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Change may attract investors
04/04/2008 21:06 - (SA)
Johannesburg - A change in Zimbabwe's political leadership could spur economic integration in southern Africa, helping the region attract vital investment.
With President Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF party losing control of parliament for the first time and the veteran leader facing tough competition for the presidency, there are hopes Zimbabwe may start to recover from years of economic misery.
Zimbabwe - which once boasted strong agricultural and manufacturing sectors - has slowly descended into economic chaos in the past decade, weighing on regional development.
"This turn-around in Zimbabwe means we'll see positive economic growth this year if Mugabe does not stay on," said Chris Hart, economist at Investment Solutions in Johannesburg.
Shares in companies that have some exposure in Zimbabwe climbed this week on South Africa's stock market on news that the opposition was making inroads, increasing the possibility of new leadership and economic transformation.
South Africa's beleaguered rand currency also benefited, ending the week about 4% firmer, having been as much 5% higher at one point.
"From a sentiment point of view, we should not underestimate the impact of that crisis," said Roelof Horne, portfolio manager at Investec. "Zimbabwe has been for a long time a negative influence on the overall perception of the region."
Now that there are signs of a possible change, the fourteen-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) formed in 1980 might be able to move forward with regional integration, which would attract investors.
"One of the key obstacles to integration has been the economics of Zimbabwe," said Kevin Lings, economist at Stanlib.
"You could not get Zimbabwe to move foward in terms of inflation, budget deficit, current account balance, while other countries have made progress."
Roads and rail links
An end to Zimbabwe's crisis could open the way for SADC to implement its infrastructure agenda - linking member countries with road and rail networks.
Other SADC key members include Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia.
"The more you can link the region in terms of trade opportunities the more you attract foreign investment because it would be easy to move goods between different countries," he said, adding that this could lift economic growth in countries above the average 6%, easing dependence on commodities.
While the economic turn-around could take years, analysts said there could be immediate social benefits if President Robert Mugabe steps down after 28 years in power.
"There could be social benefits as well and one of them could be that the influx of people across the border may stop and even reverse," Hart said.
About a thousand Zimbabweans each day have been fleeing their country's hyperinflation and chronic shortages, mainly entering South Africa and Botswana illegally.
But some South African's resent them and they have been blamed for adding to high levels of violent crime and of taking jobs from locals.
Chris Maroleng, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, said statistics have not shown that immigrants are disproportionately involved in crime, but xenophobia has been on the increase.
About 3.5 million out of a population of 12 million Zimbabweans have fled since the late 1990's.
But for many, returning to Zimbabwe will depend on the final outcome of the election.
"Some of them are very tentative," said Bishop Paul Verryn of the Central Methodist Church in downtown Johannesburg, which has become a virtual refugee centre for Zimbabweans.
"There's a feeling of wait-and-see and they want to know what the plans are for the future, before they go home."
Britain was working with the United States, European Union, World Bank and IMF on a recovery plan for Zimbabwe, which could cost $1bn a year, a British government source said on Thursday.
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