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Options running out for Mugabe
24/04/2008 21:27 - (SA)
Harare - President Robert Mugabe is fast running out of options as he scrambles to extend his 28-year rule after failing to win an outright majority in Zimbabwe's elections last month, according to analysts.
Mugabe, who only a month ago proclaimed opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai would never rule in his lifetime, is under growing pressure to stand down after his Zanu-PF party lost its parliamentary majority in the March 29 elections.
So far the 84-year-old has clung doggedly to office, as the electoral commission sits on the results of the simultaneous presidential election.
But with almost four weeks now gone since polling, excuses for the delay are wearing thin, while the international spotlight on a partial recount has made the possibility of fixing the outcome that bit harder.
Even regional allies are losing patience with Mugabe and the prospects of a military crackdown have lengthened after a Chinese ship laden with weapons for Mugabe abandoned its efforts to deliver the cargo.
In an apparent acceptance of his limited room for manoeuvre, state media has even floated the possibility of a unity government with Zanu-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic - albeit headed by Mugabe.
"He is now trying to find a way to go with dignity but it's not going to be easy," said Bill Saidi, editor of the independent weekly The Standard.
'All odds against Mugabe'
"He had hoped to regain some seats that were won by the MDC but it's proving not to work.
"He can depend on the army but they can't kill the whole country. All odds are against Mugabe."
Although Mugabe himself has said next to nothing about the election outcome, he has been endorsed by Zanu-PF to stand in a possible run-off against Tsvangirai.
However, Jonathan Moyo, once Mugabe's information minister but now an independent lawmaker, said there was no chance Mugabe could win in a run-off as his control of the electoral machinery was weakening.
"It's no longer possible for Mugabe to win any election," Moyo said.
Attempts by Mugabe's camp to persuade countries that events in Zimbabwe are none of their business have met with little success.
The Southern African Development Community, a 14-nation regional bloc, infuriated Zimbabwe by convening an emergency summit earlier this month devoted to the post-election crisis, a gathering boycotted by Mugabe.
Even though there was no direct criticism of Mugabe, the SADC leaders made an unprecedented decision to invite Tsvangirai to the meeting and called for results to be released as soon as possible.
Saidi said Mugabe was obviously in trouble if his traditional allies were cooling towards him.
"There is a realisation in SADC that they can't go on backing Mugabe."
In an apparent sign of the confusion over the post-election strategy, the normally tightly-controlled state media has been sending out mixed signals.
On Wednesday, one columnist in The Herald newspaper said SADC should broker a deal for a transitional unity government as there was a consensus that the elections "did not produce an outright winner".
However on Thursday, Mabasa Sasa, another columnist in The Herald, said: "The differences between the two (MDC and Zanu-PF) are too vast to even start contemplating the establishment of a government, even a transitional one."
Dialogue only real option
Elizabeth Marunda, a political analyst based in Harare, said Zanu-PF would ultimately have no other option but to hold dialogue with the MDC.
Tsvangirai has offered to engage in a dialogue with Mugabe over "an all-inclusive" government but Zanu-PF has rebuffed the offer.
"They have to come together and talk," Marunda said. "They need to stop these fights and come together and sit down for the benefit of the country."
Moyo agreed that dialogue rather than fresh elections was Zanu-PF's only real option.
"I don't think that it would make sense to solve an electoral deadlock through another election."
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