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MDC left with 'few options'
28/06/2008 13:13 - (SA)
Johannesburg - The Zimbabwe opposition's decision to boycott an election may have increased short-term pressure on President Robert Mugabe but leaves it with few options in the ballot's aftermath, say analysts.
Western governnments such as the United States and ex-colonial power Britain branded Friday's run-off a sham after Mugabe pushed ahead with the ballot despite his rival Morgan Tsvangirai's decision to quit the violence-wracked contest.
But while Tsvangirai's move may have helped shine an unflattering spotlight on the Mugabe regime, the UN's refusal to back a resolution condemning the vote as illegitimate has also highlighted the limits of diplomacy.
John Makumbe, a political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe, said that at least one part of the strategy by Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) had been vindicated.
"It has exposed what Mugabe really is: a vicious and violent dictator who is now being criticised by his own fellow African leaders, who say 'this is not acceptable, even in Africa'," said Makumbe.
"What Morgan Tsvangirai has done by pulling out was to escalate the crisis all the way to the UN. For the first time the Security Council discussed Zimbabwe for five hours and issued a statement."
But the oral statement issued overnight by the UN Security Council, expressing "deep regret" that the election went ahead, stopped well short of the MDC's hopes for a formal resolution.
South African Ambassador Dumisani Kumalo, whose country has been trying to mediate between Mugabe and the MDC, helped block the resolution by arguing that the Security Council was not in the business of certifying elections.
Exasperated by South Africa's stance, MDC spokesperson Nelson Chamisa said President Thabo Mbeki was behaving as if he was a card-holding member of Mugabe's Zanu-PF party.
"For anyone to try and rescue this regime is a travesty of justice. It's in complicity of the theft of democracy," he told AFP.
With Tsvangirai's withdrawal handing victory to Mugabe and Mbeki sticking to his policy of quiet diplomacy, analysts say the opposition leader now faces a question with no easy answer: What comes next?
"I think he has really limited his own options," said John Akokpari, a political scientist at the University of Cape Town.
Akokpari points out that Tsvangirai has put different conditions on potential negotiations with Zanu-PF at different times, which the analyst said signals he may not have a clear strategy.
"I'm not too sure that Mr. Tsvangirai has a second option - a B strategy," said Akokpari.
Many observers say the most plausible solution would be some type of transitional government, but even that poses problems.
There is deep distrust between the two sides, raising questions about whether a unity government would ever be able to function.
It would be difficult to imagine Mugabe, a former liberation hero, sharing power with an opponent he has cast as a stooge of the British.
As for Tsvangirai, he seems unlikely to agree to a post without real power after official vote totals from the first round showed he beat Mugabe, but without enough to secure outright victory.
"Who has the upper hand is the question," said Elizabeth Sidiropoulos of the South African Institute of International Affairs. "I don't know if Tsvangirai will ever agree to serving in a cabinet with Mugabe as president."
The analysts say Tsvangirai's best option for now seems to be continuing to make his case to regional leaders -- who, unlike Western powers, do appear to have a degree of influence over Mugabe.
Sidiropoulos said the region has to come up with concrete ways of pushing Mugabe. The threat of some form of regional sanctions, such as on fuel, could have an impact, she said.
Such sanctions do not ultimately have to be carried out, said Sidiropoulos, but "it has to be threatened and it has to be believed as credible."
Still, Tsvangirai's withdrawal, while welcomed internationally, may cause him problems among Zimbabweans.
Jonathan Moyo, Mugabe's former information minister and now an independent lawmaker, laid out the argument of Tsvangirai's opponents.
"It paints him as a coward," said Moyo. "Zimbabweans will see him as turning out to be a conditional leader."
- SAPA
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Zimbabwe Special Report
