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Zim crisis to drag on - analysts
05/07/2008 19:41 - (SA)
Harare - Zimbabwe's political impasse looks set to drag on as the two main actors assume hardline positions and lay tough pre-conditions for talks towards a negotiated settlement.
Deep-seated mistrust among the main political players - the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and President Robert Mugabe's camp, is a major obstacle to efforts for a quick solution to the crisis, analysts say.
Zimbabwe's run-off presidential election on June 27 was boycotted by opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai after deadly attacks on his supporters, and widely denounced as a sham by Western governments.
But 84-year-old Mugabe escaped serious censure at an African Union summit this week which instead ended with relatively bland calls for the formation of a Kenya-style national unity government.
On his return to Zimbabwe, Mugabe said there would be no talks with the opposition unless he was accepted as the country's rightful leader.
Progress likely to be slow
Meanwhile, the MDC formally dismissed the outcome of the one-man presidential run-off.
Analysts say the two sides shall eventually have to sit down and talk, but progress is likely to be very slow.
"If they don't agree on where to start from then it signals this is going to be a protracted process. I see a protracted dialogue, even a pre-dialogue exercise," said University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer Eldred Masunungure.
"The June 27 election ... has become a new and major stumbling block" on the country's political horizon, he added.
Political commentator Takura Zhangazha, who also heads a regional media watchdog, said the fundamental differences between the two sides point to a long process.
"One thing is for sure - the process will be drawn out. They are likely to be very tough talks," said the head of the Media Institute of Southern Africa-Zimbabwe (MISA-Zimbabwe).
No common ground for talks
Takavafira Zhou of the Great Zimbabwe University in the southern city of Masvingo, said it was unclear how the two sides would reach agreement on any issue.
"The major problem is that there is no common grounds for talks, Zanu-PF (Mugabe's party) will try to absorb the MDC and the MDC will try to maintain its identity. So it won't be an easy road to walk," he said. "We still have along time to go."
Practical points on power-sharing are likely to stall the talks, if and when they take place.
While the opposition leader won the first round, short of an absolute majority, and would want a serious role in any transitional government, Mugabe is highly unlikely to accept a secondary role.
"The major challenge is where are they going to have the power rested. I don't see Mugabe capitulating to a ceremonial head of state. For him he will want to swallow the MDC," said Mangongera.
'Mbeki doesn't have the right skills'
The broker of eventual talks will need better skills than the current regional mediator President Thabo Mbeki, analysts said, as Mbeki met Saturday in Harare with Mugabe and leaders of a breakaway faction of the MDC.
"For them (Mugabe and Tsvangirai) to meet, it needs extraordinary skills, which I suspect Mbeki might not have," Masunungure said.
Mbeki, the 14-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC)'s main mediator on the crisis, has been fiercely criticised by the MDC over his consistent refusal to publicly criticise his Zimbabwean counterpart.
"It will take them weeks just to agree to talk," predicted Zhangazha.
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