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Clouds with silver linings
25/07/2008 09:16 - (SA)
Alistair Fairweather
In March this year Forbes announced that, after 13 unbroken years, Bill Gates was no longer the richest man in the world (don't feel too sorry for him - he's still second). We all know the reason for his vast wealth - we've all bought, pirated or at least used his software at some point in our lives.
In fact many of us have come to think of buying his products like we do of buying a toaster or a photocopier for the office.
But is it? Over the years Microsoft's flagship Office suite (with stalwarts like Word and Excel) for instance has become an expensive, baroque affair with literally thousands of features. Using it is more like going to the gym than making toast or copies - many of us don't do it every day, and none of us use all of the expensive machines. Most of us wouldn't even think of buying a whole gym to ourselves, but when it comes to quality software (Microsoft or otherwise) what choice do we have?
The answer will soon be "plenty", thanks to two related trends (and industry buzzwords) - "cloud computing" and "software as a service". Together they will eventually allow everyone to use world class software without having to buy it first, or even download it.
Going for a googly
Let's look at a real world example: Google Docs. This free service gives anyone with a Google account access to an online word processor, spreadsheet and presentation maker that are substantially similar to Microsoft's core offering. Their documents can even be saved in Microsoft-friendly formats for easy compatibility.
Throw in their excellent Gmail product and you have everything most users want. What's more, several people can collaborate on a document at the same time, without overwriting each other's changes or creating out of date versions.
In this case the "cloud" part of this equation comes from the fact that all the hard work is being done on Google's computers somewhere out there on the internet. You don't need to know (or care) exactly where - it's just a nebulous "cloud" that handles your processing and storage for you. Your own computer hardly breaks a sweat. And the "software as a service" part comes from the fact that you visit Google Docs like you do the gym, and don't buy it like you do a fridge.
Granted, for power users Google Docs isn't up to scratch yet, but that doesn't mean Microsoft isn't taking the threat seriously. In April this year they announced "Live Mesh" - an ambitious project aimed at creating what Ray Ozzie their chief architect rhapsodises as "a personal mesh of devices - a means by which all of your devices are brought together, managed through the web as a seamless whole".
What that means in English is that their traditional software (like Office) is going to be more and more closely tied to online services like - funnily enough - online document storage and collaboration. It also means that you will be able to use your smart phone to show someone at a cocktail party the presentation you made last week without having to go near your computer - just visit "Live Mesh" and voila.
Free ride?
So can we look forward to completely free software in future? Definitely not. Google Docs may be nominally free, but they require you to give them a whole lot of personal data, both passively and actively, in which they are extremely interested. And the industry will eventually have to start charging - developing software is expensive.
But even when they do, there will be a whole range of new possibilities - pay-as-you-go for casual users, tiered subscription models (like cellphone contracts - "weekender plus", "business xtra", etc) and even advertising supported (like TV or radio). No longer will you have to fork out five grand up front to write a business plan or work out your budget.
As exciting as the coming "software as a service" revolution is, the "cloud computing" component is arguably more significant. The whole reason computers have become so powerful is to handle all this complicated software. If all the heavy lifting is being done out there in the cloud - why should most computers be such brawny (and expensive) brutes? Why not just make them cheap-and-dumb terminals with super-fast access to the cloud?
Of course, as with any revolution, there are all kinds of issues. If all your business's software relies on internet connectivity, what if it goes down? And just how safe is that top-secret R50m tender proposal document on Google's servers? There are dozens more of these concerns which will need to be dealt with before this new way of operating goes mainstream.
Like it or not, though, the revolution is gathering force. And if Gates and Co have jumped on the bandwagon, perhaps we had all better pay it closer attention.
Send your comments to Alistair.
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