Survey: ANC can expect 65.2%

2004-04-09 07:43

Susan Segar

Cape Town - Hot off the press survey results released on Thursday by the respected research company Markdata indicate that the African National Congress will get 65.2% of the national vote next week, making the party very slightly short of a two-thirds majority.

The survey places the Democratic Alliance second in the electoral race, with 11.8%, the Inkatha Freedom Party in third place with 8.3% and the Independent Democrats next with 7.1% of the national vote.

The survey, commissioned by the Helen Suzman Foundation and conducted among a sample of 2 000 South Africans from diverse circumstances during February and early March, indicates that the New National Party will get 4.2% of the vote, the Pan Africanist Congress 1.1%, the United Democratic Movement 1% and the African Christian Democratic Party 0.9%, with other small parties together receiving a total of 0.4%.

Releasing the results, Markdata said respondents were presented with a list of political parties and asked which party they intended supporting in the election.

"Those who indicated that they would not vote or were very unlikely to vote, were excluded from these results. Respondent who were uncertain about which political party they would support (20% of the sample) were categorised on the basis of other questions, including their popularity ratings of the major parties and their leaders."

ANC 'leading' in KZN, Western Cape

Markdata also provided predicted results for the two most hotly-contested provinces, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape.

The estimated results in KZN are ANC 47.5%; IFP 26.1%; Independent Democrats 10.8%; DA 8.1%; New NP 5.4%; PAC 0.9%; ACDP 0.8% and other parties together, 0.4% with the UDM having a negligible vote. In the Western Cape, the survey has predicted that the ANC will receive 42.4% of the vote; DA 21.6%; ID 17.1%; NNP 13.8%; UDM 2.2%; ACDP 1.2%; IFP 1.2% and other parties 0.4% combined.

Interviewed by the Natal Witness, Dr Lawrence Schlemmer, one of Markdata's directors, said the results in KZN and the Western Cape indicate that, in both provinces, the ANC and NNP in alliance stand a "very good" chance of obtaining a combined majority.

Patricia de Lille's popularity 'astounding'

Schlemmer said the big surprise in this poll is the "astounding popularity" of ID leader Patricia de Lille.

"This is despite the fact that hers is such a new party.

"But it is important to note that, as the election draws closer, people will tend to reconsider their vote. The ID's popularity may fall a little as the election gets closer.

"When crunch-time comes, people sometimes revert to the parties they supported previously, but I do not think the figure predicted for the ID will fall very much," Schlemmer said.

Questioned about the accuracy of Markdata surveys, Schlemmer said that, in 1999, they predicted the ANC majority with less than one percent difference.

"In 1994, we were a few percent out, but we got the order of the parties exact. Our results have generally been the closest to the mark in the past," Schlemmer said.

'Undecideds'

Responding to the survey results, DA director of strategy, Ryan Coetzee, said on Thursday that the Markdata survey falls short because it fails to provide the results of the "voting intention" questions in which 20% of the sample was undecided.

"They have distributed the 'undecideds' based on what they feel about parties and their leaders.

"You cannot work out how 'undecideds' are going to go based on how favourably they feel towards parties and their leaders," Coetzee said.

Coetzee said he believes the DA could get 17.1% of the vote next Wednesday, depending on turnout and the way in which undecided voters break on election day.

"As opposed to what the Markdata survey finds, we will get more than 11 and the ACDP will get more than they predict. The ID will get less and the New NP will also get less votes than Markdata predicts," Coetzee said.

ID spokesperson Marlon Kruger said the party welcomes the results.

"We are very pleased with the overwhelming support the SA public have shown us.

"We are not surprised by the high predictions for the ID in KZN and the Western Cape, as we have been working non-stop on the ground. The fruits of our labour in the provinces is paying off."

- The Witness