Global flu pandemic 'imminent'

2003-04-23 11:59

Cape Town - The next influenza pandemic was likely to emerge in southeast Asia, spread globally within six months or less and have higher levels of mortality in younger adults, a statement from Medinfo said on Wednesday.

It said the timing of the next influenza pandemic could not be predicted with any degree of certainty, but that historical evidence and the current understanding of the biology and epidemiology of flu suggested that it would unfold this way.

"The timing could be imminent, with the longest inter-pandemic interval recorded with certainty 39 years, and it is now almost 35 years since the last flu pandemic," it said.

The statement from Medinfo, an independent South African information and knowledge sharing service specialising in health-related news, related to the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars), which has affected more than 3 800 people in 26 countries globally, causing 217 deaths.

"Sars has focused the attention of the world's health authorities on the role that international travel can play in the spread of infectious illnesses.

"In doing so, the outbreak has once more highlighted the potential for novel influenza viruses to emerge and spread rapidly through susceptible populations, resulting in a worldwide epidemic," said the statement.

Commenting on the need for flu vaccinations as a method to stymie the spread of the virus, MedInfo's medical director said that more countries needed to adopt these vaccinations as a form of preparedness against a global outbreak of the disease.

"In the short-term, this means that countries using but not producing influenza vaccine may find it difficult to obtain supplies should a pandemic occur," said Dr Stephen Toovey.

Moving to antiviral preparations, Toovey said that several of these preparations had been used to prevent and treat flu, and may be helpful against any new pandemic virus variants.

- SAPA