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SA facing drought disaster
14/10/2003 07:21 - (SA)
Johannesburg - South Africa may be heading for a prolonged drought, which researchers warn could be among the most severe in decades.
The country "is experiencing drought conditions in most of the summer rainfall regions", said the South African Council for Scientific and Industrial Research.
"The drought in Limpopo province is worsening, with many dams nearly half full and water levels in some having fallen to as low as two percent.
"Large numbers of animals are also dying and farmers are having to sell their livestock," the CSIR warned.
The main provinces affected by the drought are northern Limpopo, the eastern coastal part of KwaZulu-Natal and central Mpumalanga.
The central Free State and North West "will also be seriously affected if no rain falls within the next few weeks", the CSIR warned.
Similar conditions prevailing
By using satellite imagery, the CSIR's satellite application centre (SAC) has constructed an archive of vegetation-condition maps that stretches back to 1986. To put the present weather conditions in context, the CSIR pointed to data on previous droughts.
The CSIR said: "The 1982-'83 and 1991-'92 droughts were the most-severe meteorological droughts of the 20th century in southern Africa.
"In the 1991-'92 drought, 70% of the crops failed. It was estimated half of the population in the affected area was at risk of malnutrition, other related health problems, and even starvation.
"Satellite imagery is indicating very similar results when comparing the 1992 and 2003 October vegetation-condition maps.
"The imagery shows shocking similarities with the disastrous drought year of 1992.
"If the dry conditions prevail for the next two months, South Africa can expect one of the biggest drought disasters in 100 years," warned the SAC.
The organisation also pointed out that recent wild fires had already negatively affected agricultural production.
"The huge number of wild fires that occurred in Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal between July and September have destroyed thousands of hectares of grazing.
"Farmers will be forced to sell livestock because of lack of grazing," said the CSIR.
A sharp decline in agricultural production would not only have implications for South Africa, but also for the region.
During the past year, the World Food Programme (WFP) procured more than 200 000 tons of food aid from South Africa for its regional emergency operations.
Its present operation is targeting more than six million vulnerable people in the region.
WFP spokesperson Richard Lee said it was "still too early" to say what effect a drought in South Africa would have, both locally and in terms of regional food needs.
Just beginning planting season
"We'll have to wait and see what impact it does have on South Africa," he said.
"We do not know what the situation will be like regionally... we have no idea what the needs will be across Southern Africa next year," as some forecasts had predicted average to above-average rainfall in most parts of the region, said Lee.
Grain SA spokesperson Bully Botma said a prolonged drought would have a disastrous effect on harvest prospects.
Farmers were just starting their planting season, "today, 10 October, is the optimum date" for planting to begin. The planting season ended in December he explained.
A dry winter, which saw widespread wheat crop failure, meant there was very little "carryover moisture" in the soil.
"If there's a prolonged drought, I hesitate to think what would happen [during the harvest months of June to August]," Botma added.
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