SA vulnerable to flu pandemic

2004-12-02 08:22

Johannes de Villiers

Cape Town - Avian flu's ability to mutate makes it seem possible that people can also contract this virus. Should this happen, the virus will claim millions of lives around in the world, and especially in South Africa.

The impact of HIV/Aids on the immunity of South Africans makes the area especially vulnerable to such an international flu pandemic, Medinfo health service claimed on Wednesday.

"Research undertaken in Minnesota recently indicated young people with HIV/Aids could die as easily due to flu as the elderly," Medinfo said.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said it seemed likely that the world would soon be hit by a fatal flu pandemic because a good many years have passed since the last flu pandemic.

"There has been no pandemic during the past 36 years - and we are thus inclined to believe that we are closer to the next pandemic than ever before," said Dr Klaus Stohr, an epidemiologist with WHO.

"There is no reason to believe that we will be spared. A flu pandemic will affect every country."

Thirty-two people died of avian flu in southeastern Asia earlier this year. This represented 65% of those who contracted the disease.

Reuters reported the WHO announced last week that the avian virus, called H5N1, could infect up to 30% of the world's population and claim 50 million human lives.

"If this virus still displays the ability to mutate, as it did in ducks previously, it can eventually be transmitted to humans. Should this happen, millions of people across the world will die due to this flu. And Southern Africa, the area worst hit by HIV/Aids, will be badly affected," said Medinfo.

Dr Andrew Jamieson of SAA Netcare Travel Clinics said it would place an "extraordinary burden" on the already overburdened health sector. "The human cost will be tragically high."

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