Quiet diplomacy paying off?

2005-12-13 12:42

Johannesburg - A South African spy arrested a year ago for running an espionage ring in Zimbabwe was to be released on Tuesday in a move described as pay-off for President Thabo Mbeki's quiet diplomacy.

Intelligence Minister Ronnie Kasrils travelled to Harare on Tuesday to escort the man, identified as Aubrey Welken in local news reports, back home, his spokesperson Lorna Daniels said.

"The minister has gone to Zimbabwe now. We are expecting him to return with the member who has been held there for a year," Daniels said, without adding details.

Welken, who is also known under the alias of Andrew Brown, was nabbed in December last year in Zimbabwe's northwestern resort town of Victoria Falls after being lured there by Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) agents.

At the time of his arrest, Welken was apparently planning to meet a senior Zimbabwean source in Livingstone, in neighbouring Zambia.

A bid to influence change from within?

Shortly after his arrest, six members of Zimbabwe's ruling Zanu-PF party were seized and accused of being part of an espionage ring providing Mbeki's government with information on the party's affairs.

The spy scandal was seen as an attempt by Mbeki to gain secret information on the internal workings of Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) in a bid to influence change from within the party.

Analysts said on Tuesday that Welken's release could be seen as "pay-off" for Mbeki's much-criticised policy of so-called "quiet diplomacy".

"Ultimately it does prove one thing to us that for all that has been said about South African diplomacy towards Zimbabwe, it has been able to keep an open channel with its Zimbabwean counterparts," said Chris Maroleng of the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies.

"South Africa has been the most engaged in trying to resolve the crisis - the benefits of this approach are quite evident in the release of Aubrey Welken," he said.

John Stremlau, professor at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg agreed: "This release is just a reminder to everyone that even though things are desperate in Zimbabwe, there is still a player that can talk to Harare."

Good lesson on how not to carry out intelligence operations

But Maroleng said the whole saga should act as a lesson to South Africa.

"Importantly, it provides the South African intelligence community with a very good lesson on how not to carry out intelligence operations in Zimbabwe, as it may have disastrous consequences for diplomatic efforts."

Welken, under questioning, gave the names of alleged collaborators, five of whom were later arrested.

A sixth person allegedly connected to the affair, Zimbabwean diplomat Erasmus Moyo, reportedly escaped from Geneva.

Three others - Ambassador-designate to Mozambique Godfrey Dzvairo, Zanu-PF's external affairs director Itai Marchi and banker Tendai Matambanadzo were put on trial in February and found guilty of violating the Official Secrets Act.

Dzvairo was sentenced to six years in jail and the others to between two and five years.

Zanu-PF's deputy director for security, Kenny Karidza, was released on bail pending trial and Zanu-PF member of parliament Philip Chiyangwa was acquitted.

- AFP