Vindication for Mbeki?

2008-07-24 15:08

Johannesburg - President Thabo Mbeki, who has been pilloried over his mediation efforts, has a chance to make his critics eat their words after persuading Zimbabwe's political rivals to sit and talk.

After months of negative coverage of his kid gloves approach towards his counterpart Robert Mugabe, Mbeki was able to bask on Tuesday in headlines that proclaimed him as a minor miracle worker.

With only 10 months before he is due to step down after a decade in charge of South Africa, the stalemate in the Zimbabwean crisis had threatened to push his already plumetting popularity ratings further downwards.

Salvage reputation

But analysts say a resolution to Zimbabwe's crisis - while far from a foregone conclusion - could dramatically salvage his reputation which once gleamed after his role in bringing peace to the Democratic Republic of Congo.

"It is a chance for Mbeki to rescue something from the crash-and-burn image of his presidency as it comes towards the end," said Richard Cornwell, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies.

"He will be looking for some sort of vindication of his quiet diplomacy which has been so wholly criticised by all and sundry."

The usually impassive Mbeki was all smiles on Monday as he oversaw the signing in Harare of an agreement between Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai paving the way for talks on sharing power after disputed elections.

Tsvangirai has previously called for Mbeki to be axed as mediator but his signature on the agreement marks a recognition that the South African-led process is the only game in town.

Tasked by his regional peers with mediating between Mugabe's Zanu-PF party and the MDC, Mbeki has been widely accused of being biased towards Mugabe.

'Out of touch'

After South Africa recently helped block sanctions against Zimbabwe, the United States could no longer contain its anger with its UN ambassador accusing Mbeki of "protecting" Mugabe and being "out of touch" with public opinion.

"Give Mbeki his due - he's pulled off a minor miracle," read an editorial in The Times newspaper, adding that developments "ought to have finally brought Mbeki a moment in the sun".

Aubrey Matshiqi, a columnist for the Business Day newspaper, said there was no doubt that the signing represented a feather in Mbeki's cap although he said a more balanced view of his mediation was needed.

"I think the fact that the two parties have signed a memorandum of understanding is a major achievement," he told AFP.

"Should he, every time there is a setback, be condemned, or every time there is a breakthrough, be praised?"

Matshiqi said a definitive verdict on Mbeki's mediation efforts should only be delivered once it becomes clear whether the dialogue is making progress.

"Today Mbeki is in a much better place than he has been for quite a long time," he said. "He is about a year away from the end of his presidential term - a lot can still go wrong in Zimbabwe between now and then."

Vindication

The Star newspaper agreed Monday's signing seemed for the moment to vindicate Mbeki's quiet diplomacy, saying "for now it appears to have paid off" but added that it marked only "the beginning of a delicate process".

According to Cornwell, the two-week timeline Mbeki has set for the talks, shows he wants to produce results by the time he hosts a summit of the 14-nation Southern African Development Community next month.

"He definitely wants to be able to show progress (so) he is in a position to be able to say if things don't go according to plan I did my best and it is not my fault," Cornwell told AFP.

- AFP