|
Eskom a year behind schedule
19/05/2008 20:06 - (SA)
Johannesburg - Eskom's R300bn plus New Build Programme is experiencing a slippage of a year on average and the build plan remains about 3 000MW below the required capacity, the National Electricity Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) said on Monday.
Releasing its findings into the national electricity supply shortage and load shedding that took place between November 2007 and January 2008, Nersa said Eskom had been asked to provide the reasons for the delays, particularly for those plants that were due for commissioning in 2008 and 2009.
It said the power utility would be informed about "the consequences of non-compliance".
Nersa said it had also decided to investigate measures that would hold Eskom and other generation licensees accountable for non-delivery against the plans and feasibility studies submitted in support of their licence applications.
The regulator's report followed an inquiry into whether Eskom had transgressed any of its licence conditions by resorting to unexpected load shedding in January this year.
'Inadequate and slow' While January's week-long threat of a national grid collapse was blamed on capacity problems caused by unplanned maintenance and diminishing coal reserves, Nersa expressed concern not only about the ongoing strain being put on the country's electricity grid, but also about the delivery of new generation capacity.
Nersa said implementation of measures to provide for growth in demand was "inadequate and slow".
"In particular, there have been delays in returning the mothballed generation plant to service, and the implementation of energy efficiency and demand management initiatives remain behind targets," Nersa said in its report.
Nersa said while its National Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP), the government's Integrated Energy Plan and Eskom's Integrated Strategic Electricity Plan (ISEP) had a shared view on the timing of new generation capacity, the "execution of the plans did not go as planned due to delays experienced in implementation".
Eskom's ISEP plans were also based on lower economic growth of 2.4% in 2004 with plans only adjusted for 4% growth in 2006.
This has resulted in Eskom and country "inertia" with regard to the building of new generation capacity.
The regulator's latest NIRP, covering the period 2008 to 2016, is premised on the Eskom build plan of 2005, which has subsequently experienced delays in the return to service of mothballed plant and in the construction of open-cycle gas-turbine plants.
As it stands now, the plan shows low reserve margins of 7% to 14% in the period between 2007 and 2011, as well as a situation of un-served energy ranging from 0.5% to 2% of the monthly energy demand in the years 2007 and 2008.
"The loss of load hours for these years is about 700 hours per annum, a magnitude well above the targeted reliability level of 2.4 hours per annum or 24 hours in a 10-year period," Nersa said.
According to the regulator, the capacity gap between the required build for a 19% reserve margin and Eskom's latest assessment of achievable commissioning dates will extend beyond 2016 should demand continue to grow at 4% a year.
It pointed out that capacity as set out by the NIRP's average demand forecast "is not achievable due to the commissioning lead times and slip that has already occurred".
"The current capacity does not provide the required reserve margin and due to the long lead times to build new capacity the reserve margin is only restored to an acceptable level by 2013," Nersa said in its report.
That Eskom's build plan remains about 3 000MW below the required capacity appears to be aligned with Eskom's strategy of permanently removing 3 000MW from the demand using the power conservation programme.
But further assessment of Eskom's new build programme compared with the regulator's moderate demand forecast indicates substantial delays in the implementation of plans.
Reasons for delays Besides hiccups encountered during land acquisitions for various projects, Eskom's main reasons for the delays included the delay of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approval for one of its gas projects, delay in the finalisation of coal contracts and obtaining water licences for the Medupi coal-fired project and a shortage of civil contracting capacity for its pumped storage project.
"There were no tangible reasons given by Eskom for the long delays experienced in commissioning of the return to service plants," said Nersa.
According to the regulator's preferred plan, the power stations being returned to service - Camden, Grootvlei and Komati - should all have been back on line by January this year.
Eskom has been asked to provide the reasons for the slippage of new and return to service plant commissioning dates, in particular those plants due for commissioning in 2008 and 2009
Nersa said government's efforts to fast-track the approval processes that constrain the construction and commissioning of new generation plants - such as EIAs, land expropriations, coal rights and water licences - would go
some way towards remedying the problem.
- I-Net Bridge
- I-Net Bridge (Business)
|
News
Power Crisis Special Report
