Zuma's final hurdle looms

2006-05-14 08:32

Jan Hennop

Johannesburg - Former deputy president Jacob Zuma may have walked from a rape charge last week, but analysts say his upcoming corruption trial will make or break his presidential aspirations.

The 64-year-old Zuma, once considered one of the natural choices to lead Africa's strongest economy when President Thabo Mbeki steps down in 2009, was acquitted last Monday on a charge of raping the daughter of an old family friend.

The judge in post-apartheid South Africa's most sensational trial found that Zuma had unprotected but consensual sex with the 31-year-old HIV-positive woman and admonished him for not using a condom.

A day after his acquittal, a contrite Zuma apologised to the nation for his behaviour in a politically astute move which many saw as the relaunch of his aspirations, first for the presidency of the ruling ANC in 2007 and ultimately to step into Mbeki's shoes in 2009.

But Zuma still faces a final hurdle when he's expected back in the dock on July 31 on graft charges relating to a multi-billion dollar arms procurement deal.

Mbeki sacked Zuma in June last year after a court found there was a "generally corrupt" relationship between him and his financial advisor Schabir Shaik, sentenced to 15 years in jail.

Zuma allegedly arranged a bribe in return to using his political clout to protect a local subsidiary of French arms company Thales from a state investigation into alleged irregularities.

Like in the rape trial, Zuma has denied the charges and his supporters have pointed to a political plot against him to stop him from becoming president.

Analysts said much hinges on the corruption trial.

Vital for future

"If he were to be found 'not guilty' in the corruption case, he will be unstoppable," said Prince Mashele, senior analyst at the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies.

"On the other hand, if he was to be found guilty, his chances on the presidency will be slim," Mashele told AFP.

"I think if he is innocent in the trial, I think he is a serious candidate, there is no question about it," added Adam Habib of the Human Sciences Research Council.

The ANC's highest decision-making body, the National Executive Committee (NEC) are to meet on Sunday to discuss Zuma's return to the party fold, from which he took a voluntary back seat after he was charged with rape in December.

The meeting, analysts said, was expected to be a mere formality.

"They will accept him back but some will have reservations that they would not be voicing openly," the ISS's Mashele said.

He said there seemed to be disagreement between ANC supporters on ground level, many for whom Zuma remained a liberation hero and those in party leadership positions.

"As far as I observe, the ANC is not united on Jacob Zuma," Mashele told AFP.

"Especially those who are in the ANC leadership seem to think that his political credibility has been dented," he said.

"Even if he makes it (in the corruption) trial, there might still be question marks from many quarters over whether he is appropriate," added the HSRC's Habib.

"He may have been innocent, but he should have not put himself in that position in the first place," Habib said. "There might be question marks around that," he said.

- SAPA