24/04/2008 12:08

Gavin Rich

Cape Town - We will see the usual "hope the South African teams help each other" scenario playing itself out over this weekend's round of Vodacom Super 14 action, and if all goes according to plan the Sharks and the Stormers could well be on a collision course by the end of it.

The prospect of an all-South African semi-final, thus ensuring a local participant in the final itself, would have seemed laughable just a month ago, but the Stormers are on a roll now and a win over the Highlanders on Saturday will see them move into range of third place.

As second plays third in the semi-finals, that would mean a Stormers/Sharks showdown would become a distinct possibility.

At the moment money on such an eventuality should be on the game taking place at Absa Stadium in Durban, as a win in Sydney will significantly increase the Sharks' chances of finishing second behind the Crusaders.

However, as the Sharks still have to play the Crusaders in Christchurch, even a good win over the Waratahs will not necessarily put them out of range of the Stormers, and a Sharks/Stormers game could well still happen in Cape Town.

Regardless of where it is played, both South African teams would obviously prefer the game to happen in the country, as it would mean they would avoid having to undertake the debilitating long flight east - at least for the semi-final.

Final for SA territory

And it should go without saying that the Sharks would fancy their chances in Cape Town, and vice-versa the Stormers in Durban, more than they would in Christchurch.

The way to then avoid going to New Zealand for the final would be to hope that the fourth placed team knocks out the first placed team in the other semi, thus setting up the final for South African territory.

There are a number of big games this weekend that will go a long way towards determining who is going to feature in the battle for playoff places, starting with the Crusaders match against the Blues on Friday morning.

A Crusaders win will put the Blues out of contention, whereas a Blues win will see the Aucklanders bounce back and put the Crusaders' first position on the log in doubt.

The Brumbies can also see their hopes vanquished by a defeat to the Auto & General Lions in Canberra in the later game on Friday.

WEEKEND PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS

FRIDAY

Crusaders v Blues Christchurch 09:35

Oh how I wish I had stuck with my gut feel last week, for surely I would have been the only person on the planet to predict a Chiefs win over the Crusaders. Everyone appears to be talking about the Crusaders rebounding this week, and at home you would expect them to, but it may depend on what the Blues have done to turn around their season during their fortnight off. When in top form they are certainly good enough to push the Crusaders, regardless of the venue, and when a team has lost an unbeaten record in Super rugby down the years, there has been a tendency for it to happen in twos. The smart money though should be on a Crusaders win, though not by much.

Prediction: Crusaders by 7.

Brumbies v Auto & General Lions Canberra 11:40

Can the Lions help the Stormers by knocking over the Brumbies' On paper they are probably good enough to, they just have to translate the competitive first half display from last week into an 80 minute effort this week, and take their chances better than they did against the Waratahs. I am not completely convinced by the Brumbies, who were given an inordinate amount of help by the referee last week against the Sharks. But this is the Lions we are talking about, so you have to go with the hosts.

Prediction: Brumbies by 10.

SATURDAY

Chiefs v Reds Hamilton 09:35

The Reds did well last week to beat the Western Force in the Aussie derby, but the Chiefs have matched the Stormers with the way they have come good and picked up momentum as the tournament has progressed. Indeed, their loss to the Stormers was the last blot they have on their record, and that was well over a month and a half ago.

Prediction: Chiefs by 20.

Waratahs v Sharks Sydney 11:40

This is the big game of the weekend from a South African viewpoint. A Sharks win will put breathing space between the Durban team and the chasing pack, including the Stormers, but defeat will place them in a position where they could well drop out of the top four. The Sharks have lost Steven Sykes to injury, and really have to pull finger now. They were outstanding in the first half last week, and just need to maintain that sort of momentum for a full 80 minutes, so I am not going to change what I have done all season by tipping the Sharks to win. Its backs to the wall time, and Sharks teams tend to prevail in those moments. Or is it wishful thinking...?

Prediction: Sharks by 3.

Vodacom Cheetahs v Hurricanes Kimberley 15:00

Juan Smith is back to lead the Cheetahs for the first time in months and it will be interesting to see how they go in this home away from home match. Memory seems to throw up an image of the Cheetahs losing to the Western Force, the Force's first ever win in the competition, in Kimberley two years ago, but then wasn't it in Kimberley that the Cheetahs beat the Waratahs in a thrilling match last season? The Sharks and the Stormers will be hoping for a Cheetahs win for the Hurricanes remain the most dangerous of the challengers outside of the current top four.

Prediction: Hurricanes by 10.

Vodacom Stormers v Highlanders Cape Town 17:05

We have now arrived at that juncture where everyone in the Cape has forgotten about the early season negativity towards the Stormers and now they are expected to do the rugby equivalent of walk on water every time they take the field. Watch out, for it is often when the mood is thus that teams come unstuck, and the Stormers would be wrong to read too much into the Bulls' massive win over the Otago team last week. Rather think about how unlucky the Highlanders were to lose to the Sharks a couple of weeks ago. The Stormers have made six changes, but that is not an indication of complacency, and Rassie Erasmus does not appear to be a coach who would let complacency creep in now. Instead, the Stormers are pacing themselves, and making clever use of their squad system, and the greater depth they have in some positions, such as lock, hooker and flyhalf. My money says Tony Brown will produce the goods against his old team, but the Stormers may struggle more than their fans expect them to en route to a fourth consecutive win.

Prediction: Stormers by 8.