28/04/2008 08:36

Gavin Rich

Cape Town - One weekend can make a massive difference to the outlook in the Vodacom Super 14, and after starting round 10 in a strong position, South Africa's hopes of success in the competition have suddenly slipped quite markedly.

The Sharks are still there in third position, but you would have to say that, given the way they lost to the Waratahs and their continued inability to break down opposition defences, their chances of qualification for a semi-final, let alone the home ground advantage that once seemed almost a given, are diminishing fast.

If anything, the Vodacom Stormers look a better bet for a semi-final place. While the Sharks end their tough tour with an away fixture against the high riding Crusaders in Christchurch, the Stormers have two games at home and one away to the Lions to look forward to.

Although they were angry with themselves for failing to grab a bonus point against the negative Highlanders, they did retain their winning momentum, which is important.

However, regardless of what the coaches may say, the Stormers sustained a significant blow to their chances when Schalk Burger left the field injured in the second half.

The star flanker, probably worth three or four players given his tireless contribution and omniscience on the field, sustained knee ligament damage and will miss the rest of the Super 14.

Two games

Burger will be missed in the crucial clashes over the next two Saturdays with two Australian teams, the Brumbies and Waratahs, who place a high premium on the breakdown.

The Waratahs clash in particular is shaping up as a quasi-quarter-final, and a lot is going to hinge for the Sydney team on their next two games.

They are currently in second position, five points ahead of the Stormers and four ahead of the Sharks, but travel to Pretoria this weekend to face the unpredictable Vodacom Bulls before going to Newlands. If they lose both those games, which they could, they could find themselves knocked out of the race for a semi-final spot.

Such an eventuality would probably make it irrelevant whether the Stormers pick up bonus points or not, they would just have to finish off with a 100% record in their last three games in terms of wins.

What could become significant though is points difference. Had the Stormers picked up a bonus point against the Highlanders, they would now be in third position, as they have a 10 point better difference than the Sharks and an 11 point better difference than the fourth placed Chiefs.

Both those teams are locked together at the moment on 32 log points, with the Hurricanes and Stormers on 31.

Better off

The Hurricanes, who outplayed the Vodacom Cheetahs in Kimberley at the weekend, have the best points difference of all the contending teams outside the Crusaders and Waratahs - they are on +71, as opposed to the +39 of the Stormers and the +29 and +28 of the Sharks and Chiefs respectively.

The Stormers would be better off than they are had they not given away a gift try off the last movement of the game at Newlands.

From now on every point scored in a game, and every point given away, is going to be crucial for the chances are strong that teams are going to finish on the same number of log points.

It makes for an exciting finish to the league season, with seven teams still having an interest in the title race with three matches to go.

The team to drop out of contention this past weekend was the Blues, although they deserve full marks for trying in their clash with the Crusaders in Christchurch.

Indeed, had it not been for the assistant referee missing a foot on the touchline when the Crusaders were en route to their fourth try, the Blues would probably have won.

The Brumbies nearly dropped out of the race against the Lions, having to rely on a last gasp try to get home after a bumbling performance that does not really augur well for their trips to Cape Town and Pretoria over the next fortnight.

Weekend results

Crusaders 26 Blues 22

Brumbies 28 Lions 21

Chiefs 32 Reds 20

Waratahs 25 Sharks 10