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07/02/2008 09:52
JJ Harmse
It was quite a surprise to hear national coach Peter de Villiers say that he expects at least three South African sides to make the semi-finals of the 2008 Super 14. He either is a big optimist by nature or is just not well informed about the rigors of the competition.
Also, it seems, he has not fully studied the impact of the departure of players like Victor Matfield, John Smit and Brent Russell will have on the depth of their respective playing squads.
Yes, there are many good things in South African rugby, but by making statements like that, the national coach is in for a hiding to nothing.
Then I realised that De Villiers has very limited experience of the Super 14 competition. Granted, it was no fault of his own. He was available to all the franchises, but was not used by any of them and never got the chance to compete in the competition with the aborted Southern Spears concept.
New faces
Maybe he honestly believes that three sides can make the semis, but he is probably the only one who does. One only needs to look at the history of the competition to understand how hard it will be for ONE side to make it to the last four. Nothing, but nothing less than an 'A'-game performance every weekend will be required for our sides to be competitive. Anything else will result in failure.
Forget the fact that New Zealand's sides will have almost 40 new faces or the fact that the Reds will use club players by the end of the competition. Our teams have also suffered a massive loss in depth and experience is the key to a successful competition.
Every South African side has lost crucial players. The Bulls will not be able to replace Victor Matfield, the Cheetahs have lost three Springbok props and the Lions two Springboks in the scrum. Not to mention the Stormers who will be without the experience at Super 14 level that De Wet Barry and Brent Russell provided.
More effective
Yes, one can argue that the likes of Barry, Ollie le Roux and Russell were past their sell-by dates, but it is not that simple.
Barry's influence in the Stormers defensive patterns and mindset, for example, is not going to be replaced in one season. Defensive structures only get better over time and become more and more effective as players learn to trust the person on his inside or outside.
Looking at the South African teams, they've all lost vital cogs in their defensive structures.
The Sharks had Butch James, who not only was an abrasive defender himself, but also organised a lot of their alignment from phase play.
Someone else will have to step-up to take over that role. Let's presume it will be Brad Barritt. How long before the communication between himself and France's Michalak on his inside will be perfected? I am not even referring to a possible language barrier, but to the instinctive reactions one can only get from playing next to someone for a long period.
Years to replace
The Bulls will miss Johan Roets in a big way. Not only was his defensive kicking second to none, but also his positional play with his wings, Akona Ndungane and Bryan Habana, was perfected over three seasons. Zane Kirchner is a fantastic prospect, but it is his first season at this level. He certainly will learn by trial and error as much as he will from the two Springbok wings. The question is, will that cost the Bulls a game or two?
Same with the likes of Le Roux, Jannie du Plessis and Os du Randt at the Cheetahs. Props are vital at rucks and mauls where they act as pillars and cleaners. You have more than 150 Test caps and 500 provincial games between those guys. It will take years to replace that.
Similarly with the Lions, where the absence of Andre Pretorius and Jaque Fourie is already a huge setback. They will also miss the grunt provided by Geo and Jacques Cronje. And will someone like Earl Rose cope with the huge Samoans in 2008 after being demolished by them a year ago?
Scoring machines
In all, I see many tries in games where South African sides play. Unfortunately, the opposition will be the ones scoring the majority of those. They will find many holes in the inexperienced defence patterns at venues like Ellis Park, Bloemfontein and Cape Town.
Yes, our guys will score tries as well. JP Pietersen, Habana and Fourie will still be scoring machines, but the real test for them will be to outscore the other teams.
I understand the national coach is planning on watching as many Super 14 matches as he can. For his sake, I hope his predictions will come true. If not, the egg will be all over his face.
And that would be before he even started with his real job.
Read JJ every Sunday in Rapport.
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