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Climate change: A timeline
29/01/2007 12:55 - (SA)
Paris - Here is a timeline on global warming and climate change.
1827: French scientist Jean-Baptiste Fourier is first to consider the "greenhouse effect", the phenomenon whereby atmospheric gases trap solar energy, stoking Earth's surface temperature, rather than let the heat radiate back into space.
1896: Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius blames the burning of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) for producing carbon dioxide (CO2).
1958: US scientist Charles David Keeling detects yearly rise in atmospheric CO2 as use of fossil fuels surges in post-World War II boom.
1970s: European and US scientists identify other gases (chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide) as greenhouse gases.
1979: Landmark report by US National Academy of Sciences pins greenhouse effect to climate change and warns "a wait-and-see policy may mean waiting until it is too late".
1988: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is set up under UN auspices. A milestone in forging scientific consensus on how to measure and analyse global warming, it is charged with issuing regular updates on the state of knowledge.
1990: First IPCC assessment report says levels of man-made greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere and predicts these will cause global warming.
1992: Creation of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Rio Summit, which also calls for voluntary cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions.
1995: Second IPCC assessment report says greenhouse-gas levels still rising, adds: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate."
1997: UNFCCC countries sign the Kyoto Protocol, which requires industrialised countries to reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases by 5.2 percent by a target of 2008-2012 compared with their 1990 levels. The protocol is a "framework". Fleshing out its complex and legally-binding rulebook is left to further negotiations.
2000: The 1990s are named as the hottest decade on record.
2001:
- Third IPCC report, declares the evidence for man-made global warming to be incontrovertible although the effects on the climate are difficult to pin down. Predicts that by 2100, the global atmospheric temperature will have risen between 1.4 and 5.8 C (2.52-10.4 F)and sea levels by 0.09 to 0.88 metres (3.5-35 inches), depending on how much greenhouse gas is emitted.
- United States, the biggest single greenhouse-gas polluter, abandons Kyoto. President George W. Bush questions scientific consensus for global warming, says pact is unfair and too expensive for the US economy.
- November: Kyoto signatories, minus the US, agree on the treaty's rulebook.
2002: US pressure forces out IPCC chairman Robert Watson, a leading scientist warning about climate change.
2004:
- Russia ratifies Kyoto. Its approval is needed to turn the draft pact into an international treaty under the arithmetic of its ratification clauses.
- International Energy Agency (IEA) says China is now the world's second-biggest carbon polluter, due to surging use of fossil fuels.
2005:
- February 16: Kyoto Protocol takes effect.
- August 29: Hurricane Katrina devastates US Gulf Coast, prompting speculation that exceptional season for tropical storms has been triggered by global warming.
2006:
- New studies suggest climate change is already well under way, with the loss of Alpine glaciers in Europe, shrinkage of the Greenland icesheet and ice cover at the North Pole and retreating permafrost in Siberia.
- California unveils plans for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, files lawsuits against six automakers for their contribution to global warming.
- British report written by former World Bank economist Sir Nicholas Stern says that climate change will cost up to 20 percent of global GDP if nothing is done.
2007:
- Jan 4: British scientists predict 2007 will be warmest year on record around the world.
- Jan 17: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moves the hand of the Doomsday clock forward by two minutes, making it five minutes to midnight, citing climate change as well as nuclear proliferation.
- Feb 2: IPCC unveils first of three volumes in its fourth assessment report.
- AFP
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