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Bird flu 'could kill 142m'
17/02/2006 12:02 - (SA)
Sydney - A global bird flu pandemic could kill as many as 142 million people and wipe some $4.4 trillion from economic output, according to a worst-case scenario published by Australian academics.
The study, released on Thursday by independent policy body the Lowy Institute, found that even a mild outbreak would have a sustained impact on the world economy.
"The mild scenario is estimated to cost the world 1.4 million lives and close to 0.8% of (world) GDP (approximately $330bn) in lost economic output," the report says.
"A massive economic slowdown occurs in the 'ultra' scenario with over 142.2 million people killed and a (world) GDP loss of $4.4 trillion."
The economic slowdown would likely see a major shift of global capital from the developing world to the less affected "safe haven" economies of North America and Europe, it said.
The report's authors, economic modeller and reserve bank of Australia board member Professor Warwick McKibbin and health expert Dr Alexandra Sidorenko of the Australian National University, said under the worst-case scenario, about 1% of Australians - or 214 000 people - could die from the disease.
Meanwhile, the nation's economic output would shrink by 10.6%.
Bird flue spreading
The report was released as bird flu has spread further within Africa and Europe.
The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed at least 91 people worldwide since late 2003, with most deaths in southeast Asia and China.
The report's authors note that there are "enormous uncertainties" as to whether the disease will mutate into a more contagious version spread via human-to-human contact.
But it recommends "large investment of resources" to ensure a flu pandemic does not occur.
Besides the deaths, a pandemic of any size would be expected to lead to a shrinking of the labour force due to death and illness, an increase in the cost of doing business and a shift in consumer sentiment away from exposed sectors such as travel and dining out, it said.
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