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US ups psychological war
03/04/2003 16:25 - (SA)
David E Sanger and James Risen
Washington - The Bush administration has intensified a campaign -using radio broadcasts and other communications with Iraqi military leaders - to sow doubt about whether President Saddam Hussein is still alive and in control of the country, senior administration and military officials say.
American officials say they have still reached no firm conclusions about whether Hussein survived an attack two weeks ago. But they are trying to turn that uncertainty to battlefield advantage, attempting to raise questions in the minds of Iraqi military commanders about whether they should fight for a leader who may be dead or incapacitated.
"From what our intelligence is picking up, some of the Iraqi commanders themselves have not heard from him," a
senior official told the The New York Times.
"And we don't know ourselves. So you could call this psychological warfare, or you could call it exploitation of the biggest mystery out there."
The administration's effort to raise doubts about Hussein comes after American military officials have reported to the Pentagon that most Iraqis encountered by American forces believe that Hussein is still alive.
President Bush himself has discussed the issue in at least one meeting this week and is "deeply intrigued" about Hussein's fate, according to a participant. Mystery growing
"The consensus was that the mystery about Saddam is growing, and that could be useful to us as we head into Baghdad," said one participant.
If Hussein is alive, officials said, the administration's decision to question why he has not appeared in public may help flush him out - or give clues to his whereabouts.
In briefings, White House spokesperson Ari Fleischer, and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld have repeatedly noted that Hussein, who in recent years has rarely appeared in public, has not done so since before the war started two weeks ago.
They have questioned whether tapes of Hussein, shown on Iraqi television, were pre-recorded.
The Fleischer and Rumsfeld briefings, translated into Arabic, are now being broadcast into Iraq by American forces on various frequencies.
Rumours of Saddam's family fleeing
Some captured Iraqis have told American forces that rumours that Hussein's family is fleeing are spreading fast - and administration officials said the United States is doing everything it can to fuel that speculation.
Other officials have expressed concern that until recent days many ordinary Iraqis have had little reason to question whether Hussein remains in power.
Regional Ba'ath Party offices - symbols of Hussein's rule - were largely unscathed until last weekend.
Iraqi paramilitary troops and the secret police have been active, convincing many Iraqis that the Hussein government is still intact, American intelligence officials said.
In cities across the south, Ba'ath Party headquarters have now been attacked by allied bombing and raids by special operations forces. One official noted that when Shi'ites revolted in Basra in 1991, one of their first targets was the Ba'ath Party headquarters in Basra.
"If we underestimated anything, it was Saddam's ability to project the perception that he is still in charge," one intelligence official said. "We haven't seen a massive uprising, and we think that is because most of the people are still convinced he is alive."
American intelligence officials said on Thursday that they have not yet heard Hussein or either of his two sons issuing orders since the initial raid on his bunker that started the war on the evening of March 19, Washington time.
American intelligence is convinced that he was in the bunker at the time of the raid, but do not know whether he survived.
Intelligence officials say that the United States has not been able to identify any members of Hussein's inner circle who are trying to co-ordinate Iraqi forces in the field, or who is in overall command.
The questions about Hussein resumed on Thursday when he did not appear on television, but the Iraqi government issued another statement in his name. None of the broadcasts of Hussein shown since the war started have yielded clear evidence of where and when the tapes were made.
American analysts remain convinced that several people were killed and wounded in the March 19 raid, but they have not assembled what they would consider an authoritative list of casualties.
During the 1991 Gulf war, Hussein, who has long been preoccupied with personal security, dropped from sight.
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