Heat is on for North Korea

2003-12-22 20:02

Washington - North Korea can expect global diplomatic heat to be the next "rogue state" to fall into line, now that Libya has come in from the cold by renouncing weapons of mass destruction.

In a double blow to its defiance, it has seen Iran and Libya buckle to international pressure to allow scrutiny of their atomic weapons programmes.

As of early Tuesday Pyongyang time, there had been no response from an unusually reticent official North Korean news agency to Colonel Muammar Ghaddafi's move.

Libya's capitulation was sure to evoke serious evaluation in the North Korean capital, analysts said.

But some argued that the Bush administration had as much to learn as North Korea from the Libyan climb-down, as it seeks to break the deadlock with Pyongyang that pushed planned six-nation crisis talks back from last week to next year.

President George W Bush said Libya's move signalled that states bent on developing weapons of mass destruction were heading into a blind alley.

"Leaders who abandon the pursuit of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, and the means to deliver them, will find an open path to better relations with the United States and other free nations," Bush said on Friday.

"I hope they (North Korea) are learning an important lesson from this," said Balbina Hwang, a Korea analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank.

"North Korea should learn what Libya has ... Ghaddafi saw what the future was, that if he did not relent and co-operate with the international community, life was going to be very difficult."

Some analysts argue though that while a victory for US and British diplomacy, Libya's decision was not wholly comparable to North Korea, which is far further along the nuclear road.

"The Libyan example is one we should tout to the North Koreans, it is one that we should follow in trying to negotiate an end to their nuclear programmes," said Jon Wolfstahl of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"But (Iran and Libya) are not nearly as dangerous to US interests as North Korea - they did not possess nuclear weapons, North Korea does, so it is a different kettle of fish."

The Bush administration has refused direct one-on-one talks with Pyongyang, insisting on drawing in Russia, Japan, South Korea and China into the dialogue.

The result has been weeks of talks about talks - with little sign of progress.

"We have not been willing to provide (North Korea) with any vision of why their world would be better without weapons of mass destruction," Wolfstahl said.

Bush administration officials counter they were ready to offer Pyongyang "a bold approach" of unspecified political and economic boons for a decision to renounce nuclear production.

"The lesson of Libya (is) if you offer them incentives or at least a positive vision for abandoning these programmes, then you can make progress," Wolfstahl said.

- AFP