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Bird flu: 'Millions could die'
27/01/2004 13:29 - (SA)
Hanoi - Millions of people around the world could die if the H5N1 strain of bird flu in Asia combines with another human influenza virus that is moving towards the region, the World Health Organisation said on Tuesday.
Dr Shigeru Omi, director of the UN health agency's Western Pacific office, said there was a chance the two viruses could meet and mutate, triggering a global pandemic.
"In my judgement, it is possible and so that's why we have to work very hard today, not tomorrow, to contain this, to prevent that mutation at the molecular level happening," he told reporters in Hanoi.
Omi added: "There is always potential that this kind of outbreak will result in serious global pandemic, which will involve not just hundreds, but will kill millions of people globally, if this mutation happens in the virus."
Omi said that although the number of human H5N1 infections was still limited it was rising on a daily basis, and as more poultry became infected, the greater the chance of human infection.
"The more the number of human cases, the more chance this virus will acquire the potential for human-to-human transmission," he said.
"This situation is even more serious because now you may be aware that the human influenza Type H3N2 is now occurring on the European continent and northern parts of America and this human strain is approaching Asia now."
Predict
Omi said he was unable to predict the chances of the two viruses combining but warned that the pathogenicity of the current H5N1 virus was stronger than that seen in Hong Kong in 1997, when six people died.
"So if you take into account these things together it is possible, and we should not say this is a remote possibility," Omi said.
"That's why it is very important that all member states share information promptly and in a transparent manner."
Only the swift culling of 1.4 million birds in the former British territory seven years ago averted a potential global health crisis, according to the WHO.
An estimated 50 million people died from the great influenza pandemic of 1918-1919. This was followed by pandemics in 1957-1958 and 1968-1969, during which the H3N2 virus first emerged.
Omi's warning follows on those coming from Geneva, where three international health and food safety agencies said that the outbreak of bird flu in Asia was a serious global threat to human health, and appealed for international assistance to tackle the virus.
The World Health Organisation, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation, and the World Organisation for Animal Health said in a joint statement that the spread of the highly pathogenic virus in developing countries was a "significant control challenge".
"This is a serious global threat to human health," said Lee Jong-Wook, director-general of the WHO.
The agencies, which have sent teams to the countries hit by the outbreak, insisted they were striving to avert both a human and animal pandemic, as well as an "economic disaster".
FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf said: "We have a brief window of opportunity before us to eliminate that threat."
"Farmers in affected areas urgently need to kill infected and exposed animals and require support to compensate for such losses".
The agencies appealed to donors to provide funds and technical assistance to countries hit by bird flu, also warning that the outbreak decimating chicken farms in Asia was "a disaster for agricultural production".
Confirmed
The strongest H5N1 strain of bird flu, which first appeared in Hong Kong in 1997, has been confirmed in five Asian nations and claimed the lives of at least eight people in recent weeks.
Four other countries in the region have reported outbreaks of bird flu.
Although bird or avian flu spreads through chickens rapidly and extensively, it is only transmitted to humans through direct contact with infected live birds.
Concern has been heightened at the WHO's headquarters in Geneva because of the unchecked spread and duration of bird flu in poultry farms in Asia.
It has leapfrogged through Cambodia, Japan, Indonesia, Laos, Pakistan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
Despite the growing alarm at the potential human toll, the agencies also underlined that, unlike Sars, avian influenza was well understood and could be effectively treated with costly antiviral drugs.
"This time we face something we can possibly control before it reaches global proportions if we work cooperatively and share needed resources. We must begin this hard, costly work now," said Lee.
Health experts, pharmaceutical companies involved in vaccine development, and authorities taking part in the global influenza surveillance network were due to hold talks on Tuesday, a WHO spokeswoman said.
"We think we can have a vaccine in the coming six to eight months," said spokesperson Fadela Chaib.
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