Al-Qaeda ranks growing larger

2004-05-25 15:30

London - Despite losses around the world, al-Qaeda has more than 18 000 potential terrorists and its ranks are growing because of Iraq, a leading think tank warned on Tuesday.

Al-Qaeda still has a functioning leadership despite the deaths or capture of key figures and estimates suggest al-Qaeda operates in more than 60 nations around the world, the International Institute of Strategic Studies said in its Strategic Survey 2003/4.

The terrorist group poses a growing threat to Western interests and attacks are likely to increase, the private think tank said.

"Al-Qaeda must be expected to keep trying to develop more promising plans for terrorist operations in North America and Europe, potentially involving weapons of mass destruction," IISS director John Chipman told a media conference to launch the annual survey.

"Meanwhile, soft targets encompassing Americans, Europeans and Israelis, and aiding the insurgency in Iraq, will suffice," he added. The estimate of 18 000 fighters was based on intelligence estimates that al-Qaeda trained at least 20 000 fighters in its training camps in Afghanistan before the United States and its allies ousted the Taliban regime. In the ensuing war on terror, some 2 000 al-Qaeda fighters have been killed or captured, the survey said.

Al-Qaeda uses Iraq against US

The United States remains al-Qaeda's prime target in a war it portrays as a cataclysmic clash between civilisations where no compromise is possible, the report said. An al-Qaeda leader has said four million Americans will have to be killed "as a prerequisite to any Islamic victory," the survey said.

Iraq has become the new magnet of al-Qaeda's war against the United States and up to 1 000 foreign Islamic fighters have infiltrated Iraqi territory, where they are co-operating with Iraqi forces, the survey said.

Al-Qaeda appears to have successfully reconstituted its operations in dispersed groups and through local allies since being driven out of Afghanistan, the survey said.

"The Madrid bombings in March 2004 suggested that al-Qaeda had fully reconstituted, set its sights firmly on the US and its closest Western allies in Europe, and established a new and effective modus operandi," the survey said.

The US military incursion in Iraq has increased the risk to Western interests in Arab countries, the survey said.

The West and its allies must continue to mount a major offensive against al-Qaeda and progress will be incremental, the report said. Any security offensive against al-Qaeda must be accompanied with political developments, such as the democratisation of Iraq and the resolution of conflict in Israel, it said.

Progress against al-Qaeda "is likely to accelerate only with currently elusive political developments that would broadly depress recruitment and motivation," the report said.

- AP