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Scandals could cost Blair job
01/05/2006 09:03 - (SA)
Madeline Chambers
London - Britain's Tony Blair, struggling to overcome a spate of ministerial scandals, is braced for a drubbing in Thursday's local elections, widely seen as a test of how long the prime minister can hold on to power.
Blair has staggered from one bad headline to another in the last two months and a Sunday poll showed most Britons think his government is "sleazy and incompetent" and indicated a slide in his personal ratings to a historic low.
Last week the government suffered charges of ineptitude over the release of foreign prisoners who should have been considered for deportation and over flagship health reforms.
To make matters worse, Blair's combative deputy John Prescott has endured humiliation over an affair with his secretary.
"Last week was a bad week for the government," cabinet minister Alistair Darling told BBC Television. "My prediction for this week is that it will be bad as well ... we have difficult elections coming up."
The local poll is a crucial test for Blair and for new opposition Conservative leader David Cameron who is under pressure to deliver good results given Labour's problems.
A very poor result for Blair is likely to spark fresh calls for him to step aside sooner rather than later.
Blair has set the clock ticking on his departure by saying he will not stand for a fourth term at 2009's expected election. His most likely successor is finance minister Gordon Brown.
The Sunday Telegraph reported rebel Labour lawmakers were preparing to launch a challenge to Blair if Labour loses 300 council seats of the 1 767 it is defending on Thursday.
But analysts note that Blair still has a big majority and Labour is not split in the way the previous Conservative government was before Blair's landslide 1997 election win.
Digging in?
There are signs Blair is digging in.
He told Sunday's News of the World last week was "just another tough week" and he wanted to get on with his job.
"The most important thing for me is to carry on the programme on the (health service), our schools, this whole business to do with anti-social behaviour," said Blair.
But he does look set for heavy losses. Local elections are traditionally used by voters to kick the government of the day and analysts predict Labour losses of 100-200 seats.
A Sunday Times YouGov poll showed 57% of respondents thought Blair's government was "sleazy and incompetent". That is a blow to Blair, himself embroiled in a party funding "cash for favours" row despite vowing to be "whiter than white" in 1997.
His personal ratings also slipped to their lowest level since taking over as Labour leader 12 years ago.
Commentators expect Blair to shake up his cabinet after the local elections in a bid to reassert his authority and two close allies are in deep trouble this weekend.
Opponents have called on Home Secretary Charles Clarke to quit after he acknowledged 1 023 foreign prisoners had been freed when they should have been considered for deportation.
His position worsened on Friday when he said five of those released had committed new crimes.
Blair seemed to give only qualified support to Clarke in the News of the World but his office insisted he "strongly supports" Clarke, who wants to stay to sort out the mess.
Commentators also question whether Prescott can command respect after lurid details of his affair were printed.
Prescott is viewed as a key cabinet member due to his links with Labour's left and as a mediator between Blair and Brown when their relationship gets shaky.
- Reuters
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