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$500m to run for White House
22/09/2006 09:05 - (SA)
Washington - Strategists from both the Republican and Democratic parties estimate the White House race in 2008 could cost each nominee $500m - far more than the presidential election campaign fund can afford.
As a result, the next US presidential campaign could mark the first time in 30 years that the Democratic and Republican nominees turn down the fund's millions in both the primary and the general elections.
"The public financing system was a great system, but it's broke," said Steve Elmendorf, the deputy campaign manager for Democrat John Kerry when the US senator ran in 2004.
"There's not enough money in it anymore. It's highly unlikely that any candidate in any party will stay in the public funding system," Elmendorf said.
The decision has precedent.
Bush, Kerry declined funds
President George W Bush declined the public money in the 2000 Republican primaries, when he was a first-time candidate, and did so again in 2004, when he sought re-election. Democrats Howard Dean and John Kerry made the same choice in 2004.
Still, Bush and Kerry each accepted $74.5m from the fund to run their general election campaigns. For 2008, the amount could reach $85m per nominee.
If the major party candidates decline the general election funds in two years, they in effect would kill one of the chief post-Watergate overhauls in campaign law.
The fund, which is expected to have about $200m by the end of 2007, still would help pay for party presidential nominating conventions and assist primary candidates who do not raise large amounts of money.
Candidates stockpiling money
More than ever, the first cut in the presidential sweepstakes will not result from the early contests of 2008, but from candidates' ability to stockpile huge amounts of money the previous year. That means potential candidates will ramp up their fundraising far sooner than they ever have in the past.
"The 2008 presidential election is going to be the Wild West," said Michael Toner, the Republican chairperson of the federal election commission. "Upward of$500m is the likely goal of presidential fundraising per candidate."
So far, the best test of potential candidates' fundraising is the political action committees they have formed to probe the political environment and seed the landscape with donations. That money cannot be transferred into their election accounts.
Clinton tops those in the running
Of Republicans considering a run, the four whose PACs have raised the most money are senators John McCain and Bill Frist, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
At the top of the Democratic money list are former Virginia governor Mark Warner, Kerry, and senators Hillary Rodham Clinton, Evan Bayh and Barack Obama.
Clinton stands out above the rest.
As of August 23, she also had $22m in her senate campaign fund. She can transfer this money directly into a presidential contest.
McCain caused a stir
No one represents the crossroads of presidential ambition and campaign finance activism more than McCain. His name is synonymous with tough election laws that have banned parties from collecting unrestricted and unlimited amounts of money.
But McCain is among those prepared to forgo the public financing system in 2008, according to strategists working with him.
He caused a stir this summer when he did not sign on as one of the congressional supporters of legislation that would overhaul the system.
The measure would triple the amount available to candidates during state primaries and eliminate the state spending limits. It also would offer more money to candidates whose opponents chose to decline the money and raise more on their own.
In an interview, McCain said he supported the measure and said that if it passed he would live by the new rules.
Strict restrictions
Under current rules, no one can take the public money without agreeing to strict spending restrictions.
Campaign strategists and campaign finance analysts say they can imagine the new crop of presidential candidates concluding that the entire government handout is not worth the trouble.
"Anybody who takes federal funding will do so at their own peril because they will be dramatically outspent," said Tom Rath, a Republican national committee member from New Hampshire
Accept or decline public funds
Rath, echoing others, believes the minimum that top tier candidates will have to have in hand at the end of 2007 will be "clearly north of $50m".
Some people predict the number will be closer to $100m.
Once the parties have their nominees, the candidates will have to decide whether to settle for the guaranteed total - estimated up to $85m depending on inflation - or decline the money and raise more on their own. It seems inevitable, though, that if one party's nominee declines the money, the other will, too.
Under existing law, the party nominees get their general election money after their respective political conventions, typically held in August. Some strategists and analysts believe raising money for the general election will cut into valuable campaign time. And they say the public money should be more than enough for a 100-day contest.
"If you don't accept public money in the general there is a much greater chance that you will suffer from public criticism and reprobation because it'll look like you're just going to buy the election," said Don Fowler, chairman of the Democratic party during Bill Clinton's 1996 re-election.
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