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Can Hillary win them over?
23/01/2007 14:54 - (SA)
Washington - Hillary Clinton plunged into the 2008 US presidential race an immediate favourite to win her party's nomination, but her polarising image means Democratic rivals like Barack Obama and John Edwards have a chance to steal it from her.
Her long-awaited entry into the race opened up what promises to be one of the most exciting and groundbreaking political contests in US history - pitting senator Clinton, determined to become the country's first female president, against fellow senator Obama, who aims to be the first African-American in the White House.
"I'm in. And I'm in to win," Clinton said in a video announcement on her website.
Obama recently signalled his own plan to fight for the nomination, saying he had formed a committee to test the waters and start raising money.
With their entry the field of confirmed Democratic hopefuls has expanded, still 12 months ahead of the first crucial state-based primary elections that will decide the Democratic and Republican party nominees who battle for the White House in November 2008.
Frontrunner
Clinton, 59, the wife of former president Bill Clinton, ended years of speculation over her political ambitions with her announcement.
"The frontrunner has just stepped on the stage," said Washington's veteran political analyst Charlie Cook.
"This is the first woman in our history who will be taken seriously by everyone," said political scientist Ruth Mandel of Rutgers University.
But while polls showed Clinton the odds-on favourite to capture the Democratic nomination next year, her continuing ability to divide voters meant that the race was still wide open, with Obama, former senator John Edwards, and others yet to commit to the race angling to demonstrate they have a better chance to defeat the Republican challenger.
In a Washington Post-ABC News poll released on Saturday based on voters surveyed before her announcement, Clinton outpaced Obama 41% to 17% in the contest for the Democratic nomination.
Likewise, a Gallup poll taken a week before put Clinton ahead with 29% backing from Democratic voters, compared with Obama with 18% and Edwards at 13%.
But questions remain over whether Clinton, whose eight years as an untraditional first lady behind husband Bill left a large swath of US voters cold, can defeat any politician the Republicans choose to fight for the White House.
Clinton disliked by 38% of all voters
A CBS News poll at the beginning of January pointed to her big weakness: 38% of all voters, and a whopping 78% of Republicans, have decidedly unfavourable feelings toward Clinton, suggesting that, in a country closely divided between the two parties, she might not have the ability to woo the Republicans necessary for a decisive victory in 2008.
Indeed, a Newsweek poll suggested that Edwards, the vice presidential running mate of John Kerry in their ill-fated campaign for the White House in 2004, could be the Democrats' best bet.
Asking voters their preference in certain match ups, Newsweek reported that Clinton, if she runs against Republican senator John McCain, would narrowly come out ahead, 48% to 47%.
In an Obama-versus-McCain scenario, the Democrat carried 46% against McCain's 44%. But Edwards trumped McCain 48% versus 43%.
Measured against current leading Republican contender Rudy Giuliani, a former New York mayor, Clinton came out one percentage point behind and Obama was two points behind. But Edwards held a 48-45% lead over Giuliani.
Obama a pivotal cross-cultural figure
That did not mean Obama should be ruled out. He only burst on the national scene in 2004, but since then, with inspirational oratory and an easy smile, has carved out an image as a pivotal cross-cultural figure and the voice of a newer generation.
"He does fit America's image of itself," said political scientist Larry Sabato. "He's young, charismatic, optimistic, diverse - America is no longer going to be a white majority country by 2050."
No one is dismissing the possibility of someone else charging to the forefront either. For one, voters have long preferred state governors to senators for the White House, giving some advantage to former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack, who has already entered the race for the Democratic nomination, and New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, who, as part-Hispanic, pull in the support of the country's massive Latino population.
Also waiting in the wings are Al Gore - Bill Clinton's vice president - who has not firmly rejected making another try for the White House, and Kerry, who has not given up his hopes despite his crushing loss to Bush in 2004.
- AFP
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