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Clinton, Giuliani up front
08/04/2007 12:00 - (SA)
Washington - Latest polling in the 2008 White House campaign shows Hillary Clinton leading a three-way race for the Democratic nomination, while Rudolph Giuliani heads the Republican field, with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney showing early signs of a surge.
While opinion surveys are simply long-range indicators nine months before first nominating contests, they do serve to set perceptions of the race in the media and among likely voters, and spotlight trends that can be used by campaign chiefs to sharpen tactics.
New York senator Clinton appears to be maintaining the lead in national polls that she has had for months.
A Time magazine national opinion survey in late March gave her the support of 31% of voters, compared to 24% for rising star Senator Barack Obama and 16% for defeated 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards.
The latest Fox News poll had her at 36% ahead of Obama with 18% support and Edwards back on 13%. Rasmussen last week put the race at 33% for Clinton, 26% for Obama and Edwards at 17%.
But when the focus turns to the key states of Iowa and New Hampshire, the race appears much tighter, and Clinton consequently more threatened.
After months of intense campaigning in Iowa, and several weeks after revealing that cancer had returned to haunt his wife Elizabeth, John Edwards led Clinton in a University of Iowa poll conducted between March 19 and 31, earning the support of 34% of likely voters, compared to the former first lady's 29%. Obama trailed with 19%.
His lead in the state, the first to weigh in on the nominating process next January, was confirmed by a Strategic Vision poll last week, which pegged him at 27% compared to Obama on 20% and Clinton in third on 19%.
In the other key early voting state, New Hampshire, Clinton appears to be holding on to a steady, yet small lead.
A Zogby poll had Clinton at 29% last week, with Obama and Edwards tied at 23%. A CNN survey had Clinton on 27%, followed by Edwards with 21% and Obama with 20% support among likely New Hampshire primary voters.
All other Democratic candidates lagged well behind.
Republicans
On the Republican side, Giuliani is at the head of the national race, well ahead of former front-runner John McCain and Romney, according to polls.
The ex-mayor of New York stacked up 34% support in a Cook Report/RT Strategies poll up to April 1. McCain had 17% followed by former senator and television actor Fred Thompson, who is mulling a White House bid with 10%. Romney came in fourth with 6%, behind former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich, who is also thinking of running and had nine% support.
In Iowa, Giuliani was leading the field in a Strategic Vision poll, nine months before the caucuses, with 25%, ahead of McCain with 20%. Thompson had 11% support. Romney had 8% and Gingrich had 6%.
An average of several recent Iowa polls on the Republican side by independent political website Real Clear Politics had the race led by Giuliani, with 25% of the vote, McCain with 22%, Romney with 11%, Thompson with 9% and Gingrich with 5%.
McCain was clinging on to a lead in New Hampshire, at 27%, in an average of polls taken in the state over the last month, ahead of Giuliani on 24%, Romney on 20% and Thompson on 6.3%.
But in a poll published last week by Zogby, Romney had rocketed into a tie to lead New Hampshire with McCain, doubling his support to 25%, followed by Giuliani with 19%.
Most of the Republican polling was however conducted before Romney shot to the top of the party's fundraising race last week, raising more than 21 million dollars in the first three months of the year compared to Giuliani's 15 million and McCain's 12.5 million.
The money advantage could help Romney, who is vying to become America's first Mormon president, increase his visibility and improve his opinion poll numbers.
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